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. 2018 May 21;8(1):7940.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-26145-6.

Prognosis and nomogram for predicting postoperative survival of duodenal adenocarcinoma: A retrospective study in China and the SEER database

Sujing Jiang  1 , Rongjie Zhao  2 , Yiran Li  2 , Xufeng Han  3 , Zhen Liu  2 , Weiting Ge  4 , Ying Dong  5 , Weidong Han  6
Affiliations

Prognosis and nomogram for predicting postoperative survival of duodenal adenocarcinoma: A retrospective study in China and the SEER database

Sujing Jiang et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

As primary duodenal adenocarcinoma is rare, the prognostic factors of this disease remain insufficiently explored, especially in China. We identified postoperative duodenal adenocarcinoma patients at a Chinese double-center (from 2006 to 2016) or who were registered with the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (from 2004 to 2014). Clinicopathological features and significant prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) were reviewed and analyzed by using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. Then, a nomogram predicting CSS was constructed based on the SEER database and validated externally by using the separate Chinese cohort. Totally, 137 patients from the Chinese double-center and 698 patients from the SEER database were included for analysis. The multivariate analyses showed that age, tumor grade and TNM stage were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram constructed using these factors showed a clear prognostic superiority to the AJCC-TNM classification, 7th ed. (C-index: SEER cohort, 0.693 vs 0.625, P < 0.001; Chinese cohort, 0.677 vs 0.659, P < 0.001, respectively). In summary, the valuable prognostic factors in patients with duodenal adenocarcinoma were age, tumor grade and TNM stage. This study developed a nomogram that can precisely predict the CSS for postoperative duodenal adenocarcinoma patients.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Kaplan-Meier curves of CSS for patients with postoperative duodenal adenocarcinoma in the Chinese cohort (a) and SEER cohort (b) by risk group stratification within each pN stage.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Nomogram predicting the 3-year and 5-year CSS for postoperative  duodenal adenocarcinoma patients.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The calibration curves for predicting patient CSS at (A) 3-year and (B) 5-year in the training cohort, and at (C) 3-year and (D) 5-year in the external validation cohort. Nomogram-predicted survival is plotted on the x-axis, and the actual survival is plotted on the y-axis.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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