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. 2018 May 24;23(1):21.
doi: 10.1186/s12199-018-0708-1.

Cost of illness of ischemic heart disease in Japan: a time trend and future projections

Toshiharu Gochi  1 , Kunichika Matsumoto  1   2 , Rebeka Amin  1 , Takefumi Kitazawa  2 , Kanako Seto  2 , Tomonori Hasegawa  3   4
Affiliations

Cost of illness of ischemic heart disease in Japan: a time trend and future projections

Toshiharu Gochi et al. Environ Health Prev Med. .

Abstract

Background: Ischemic heart disease (IHD/ICD10: I20-I25) is the second leading cause of deaths in Japan and accounts for 40% of deaths due to heart diseases. This study aimed to calculate the economic burden of IHD using the cost of illness (COI) method and to identify key factors that drive the change of the economic burden of IHD.

Methods: We calculated the cost of illness (COI) every 3 years from 1996 to 2014 using governmental statistics. We then predicted the COI for every 3 years starting from 2017 up to 2029 using the fixed and variable model estimations. Only the estimated future population was used as a variable in the fixed model estimation. By contrast, variable model estimation considered the time trend of health-related indicators over the past 18 years. We derived the COI from the sum of direct and indirect costs (morbidity and mortality).

Results: The past estimation of COI slightly increased from 1493.8 billion yen in 1996 to 1708.3 billion yen in 2014. Future forecasts indicated that it would decrease from 1619.0 billion yen in 2017 to 1220.5 billion yen in 2029.

Conclusion: The past estimation showed that the COI of IHD increased; in the mixed model, the COI was predicted to decrease with the continuing trend of health-related indicators. The COI of IHD in the future projection showed that, although the average age of death increased by social aging, the influence of the number of deaths and mortality cost decreased.

Keywords: Aging; Cost of illness; Health policy; Ischemic heart disease; Medical economics.

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Conflict of interest statement

Ethics approval and consent to participate

The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Toho University School of Medicine (reference number: A16019).

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Cost of illness (COI) projection with cost elements and projection of average age of death
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Sensitivity analysis discount rate varied from 0 to 5%; trend of COI remained the same
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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