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. 2018 Aug;14(8):981-988.
doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2018.03.005. Epub 2018 May 22.

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Ron Brookmeyer  1 , Nada Abdalla  2
Affiliations

Estimation of lifetime risks of Alzheimer's disease dementia using biomarkers for preclinical disease

Ron Brookmeyer et al. Alzheimers Dement. 2018 Aug.

Abstract

Introduction: Lifetime risks are the probabilities of progressing to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia during one's lifespan. Here, we report the first estimates of the lifetime and ten-year risks of AD dementia based on age, gender, and biomarker tests for preclinical disease.

Methods: We used a multistate model for the disease process together with US death rates.

Results: Lifetime risks of AD dementia vary considerably by age, gender, and the preclinical or clinical disease state of the individual. For example, the lifetime risks for a female with only amyloidosis are 8.4% for a 90-year old and 29.3% for a 65-year old. Persons younger than 85 years with mild cognitive impairment, amyloidosis, and neurodegeneration have lifetime risks of AD dementia greater than 50%.

Discussion: Most persons with preclinical AD will not develop AD dementia during their lifetimes. Lifetime risks help interpret the clinical significance of biomarker screening tests for AD.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Lifetime risks; Preclinical; Prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Interests:

RB reports grants from National Institutes of Health and fees from Takeda Inc. for serving as a member of a data safety monitoring board. NA has nothing to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Multistate Model used to estimate lifetime risks of AD dementia
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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