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. 2018 Jun 1;14(1):174.
doi: 10.1186/s12917-018-1503-3.

Spatial and temporal distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Uganda (2002-2016)

Sylvester Ochwo  1 , Kimberly VanderWaal  2 , Anna Munsey  3 , Christian Ndekezi  1 , Robert Mwebe  4 , Anna Rose Ademun Okurut  4 , Noelina Nantima  4 , Frank Norbert Mwiine  1
Affiliations

Spatial and temporal distribution of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Uganda (2002-2016)

Sylvester Ochwo et al. BMC Vet Res. .

Abstract

Background: Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a devastating transboundary viral disease of cattle which causes significant loss in production. Although this disease has been reported in Uganda and throughout East Africa, there is almost no information about its epidemiology, spatial or spatio-temporal distribution. We carried out a retrospective study on the epidemiology of LSD in Uganda between the years 2002 and 2016, using data on reported outbreaks collected monthly by the central government veterinary administration. Descriptive statistics were computed on frequency of outbreaks, number of cases, vaccinations and deaths. We evaluated differences in the number of reported outbreaks across different regions (agro-ecological zones), districts, months and years. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan statistics were used to identify possible epidemiological clusters of LSD outbreaks.

Results: A total of 1161 outbreaks and 319,355 cases of LSD were reported from 55 out of 56 districts of Uganda. There was a significant difference in incidence between years (P = 0.007) and across different regions. However, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreaks per month (P = 0.443). The Central region reported the highest number of outbreaks (n = 418, 36%) followed by Eastern (n = 372, 32%), Southwestern (n = 140, 12%), Northern (n = 131, 11%), Northeastern (n = 37, 3%), Western (n = 41, 4%) and Northwestern (n = 22, 2%) regions. Several endemic hotspots for the circulation of LSD were identified in the Central and Eastern regions using spatial cluster analyses. Outbreaks in endemic hotspots were less seasonal and had strikingly lower mortality and case-fatality rates than the other regions, suggesting an underlying difference in the epidemiology and impact of LSD in these different zones.

Conclusion: Lumpy Skin disease is endemic in Uganda, with outbreaks occurring annually in all regions of the country. We identified potential spatial hotspots for LSD outbreaks, underlining the need for risk-based surveillance to establish the actual disease prevalence and risk factors for disease maintenance. Space-time analysis revealed that sporadic LSD outbreaks tend to occur both within and outside of endemic areas. The findings from this study will be used as a baseline for further epidemiological studies for the development of sustainable programmes towards the control of LSD in Uganda.

Keywords: Agro-ecological zones; Epidemiology; Lumpy skin disease; Spatio-temporal epidemiology; Uganda.

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Conflict of interest statement

Authors’ information

SO is a PhD candidate with interest in epidemiology and diagnostics for Animal and zoonotic viruses. KVW is an assistant professor at the Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, CN is an MSc candidate with interest in epidemiology and molecular biology, AM is a PhD candidate studying epidemiology of animal viruses in Uganda, ARAO is the assistant commissioner diagnostics and epidemiology at the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries Uganda, NN is the assistant commissioner disease control at the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries Uganda, RM is a Senior Veterinary Officer-epidemiology at the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries Uganda, FNM is a professor of Veterinary virology at Makerere University with vast experience in epidemiology and diagnosis of livestock diseases.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Written consent was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), department of Epidemiology to carry out this study, using data collected by them.

Competing interests

The authors of this paper do not have any financial or personal relationship with other people or organisations that could inappropriately influence or bias the content of the paper. The authors therefore declare that they have no competing interests in the publication of this paper.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Map of Uganda showing the location of Uganda in Africa (inset), national parks, international borders and the regions in this study (Source: This study)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Map of Uganda showing district and regional distribution of LSD outbreaks (2002–2016), national parks and national borders. The size of the red circles indicate the respective number of LSD outbreaks in the areas marked (Source: This study)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Total yearly Lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Uganda from 2002 to 2016
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Spider plots showing the monthly distribution of LSD outbreaks per region from 2002 to 2016
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Purely spatial distribution of identified clusters of LSD cases with significantly higher incidences in Uganda from 2002 to 2016 (Source: This study)
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Space-time distribution of identified clusters (n = 5) of LSD cases with significantly higher incidences in Uganda from 2002 to 2016 (Source: This study)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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