Universal screening at age 1-2 years as an adjunct to cascade testing for familial hypercholesterolaemia in the UK: A cost-utility analysis

Abstract

Background and aims: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is widely underdiagnosed. Cascade testing (CT) of relatives has been shown to be feasible, acceptable and cost-effective in the UK, but requires a supply of index cases. Feasibility of universal screening (US) at age 1-2 years was recently demonstrated. We examined whether this would be a cost-effective adjunct to CT in the UK, given the current and plausible future undiagnosed FH prevalence.

Methods: Seven cholesterol and/or mutation-based US ± reverse cascade testing (RCT) alternatives were compared with no US in an incremental analysis with a healthcare perspective. A decision model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for cohorts exposed to the US component of each strategy. RCT case ascertainment was modelled using recent UK CT data, and probabilistic Markov models estimated lifetime costs and health outcomes for the cohorts screened under each alternative. 1000 Monte Carlo simulations were run for each model, and average outcomes reported. Further uncertainty was explored deterministically. Threshold analysis investigated the association between undiagnosed FH prevalence and cost-effectiveness.

Results: A strategy involving cholesterol screening followed by diagnostic genetic testing and RCT was the most cost-effective modelled (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus no US £12,480/quality adjusted life year (QALY); probability of cost-effectiveness 96·8% at £20,000/QALY threshold). Cost-effectiveness was robust to both deterministic sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses that modelled ongoing case ascertainment at theoretical maximum levels.

Conclusions: These findings support implementation of universal cholesterol screening followed by diagnostic genetic testing and RCT for FH, under a UK conventional willingness-to-pay threshold.

Keywords: Cost-effectiveness; Hyperlipoproteinaemia type II; Systematic population screening.