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. 2018 Jun 27;12(6):e0006604.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006604. eCollection 2018 Jun.

Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015

Yuehong Wei  1 , Yang Wang  2 , Xiaoning Li  1 , Pengzhe Qin  1 , Ying Lu  1 , Jianmin Xu  1 , Shouyi Chen  1 , Meixia Li  1 , Zhicong Yang  1
Affiliations

Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015

Yuehong Wei et al. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou for the period from 2006-2015.

Methods: We obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006-2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS.

Results: The annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to -0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS transmission.

Conclusions: Meteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Geographic location of Guangzhou, Guangdong province, China.
(Created by ArcGIS 10.1(Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc)).
Fig 2
Fig 2. The time series of case and meteorological.
Fig 3
Fig 3. The compare of fitted and cases in the final model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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