Extremely and pandrug-resistant bacteria extra-deaths: myth or reality?

Abstract

In 2009, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimated that multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infections were responsible for 25,000 extra-deaths per year. In 2015, another report estimated that 12,500 extra-deaths were attributable to MDR bacteria every year in France. Recently, the United Nations claimed that resistance to antimicrobials was a global scourge, forecasting 10 million deaths in 2050. Surprisingly, our antibiotic resistance surveillance system in Marseille, France, did not allowed us to observe similar trends. We herein compared our data on extremely drug-resistant (XDR)/pandrug-resistant (PDR) patient extra-deaths to evaluations and predictions from these reports. First, we retrospectively collect and analyze antibiotic resistance data produced by our settings between November 2009 and March 2015 to look for 30-day deaths attributable to XDR/PDR strains belonging to 11 bacterial species/genus. In parallel, we performed a PubMed literature search to look for articles published prior to July 2016 and describing human deaths due to PDR strains. Overall, 35,723 patients were infected by at least one bacterial species/genus of interest and 85 by XDR/PDR strains. Of these patients, only one death was attributable to a XDR bacterial infection in a patient with strong comorbidities and two consecutive septic shocks. Our literature review shows that only four articles described human deaths due to PDR bacteria. All together, these data allowed us to conclude that there is a large discrepancy between the real count of deaths attributable to XDR/PDR bacteria and alarmist predictions.

Keywords: Antibiotic resistance; Empirical data; Extra-deaths; Multidrug-resistant bacteria; Old antimicrobial drugs.