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. 2018 Jul 9:10:789-797.
doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S160018. eCollection 2018.

Rising trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 2000-2014

Wenrui Wu #  1   2 , Xingkang He #  3   4 , Liya Yang  1   2 , Qing Wang  1   2 , Xiaoyuan Bian  1   2 , Jianzhong Ye  1   2 , Yating Li  1   2 , Lanjuan Li  1   2
Affiliations

Rising trends in pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in 2000-2014

Wenrui Wu et al. Clin Epidemiol. .

Abstract

Background: The morbidity and mortality of pancreatic cancer vary considerably around the world. The aim of this study was to characterize and evaluate recent changes in incidence and incidence-based mortality in the USA.

Methods: Incidence and incidence-based mortality data were based on the 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries through SEER*Stat software. We adopted joinpoint regression to analyze the temporal trends stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size.

Results: Based on 18 SEER data sets, the age-adjusted incidence of pancreatic cancer increased from 11.85/100,000 in 2000 to 14.70/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.8, p<0.05). The incidence-based mortality also increased, from 9.96/100,000 in 2001 to 12.96/100,000 in 2014, increasing by an AAPC of 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.5, p<0.05). However, we observed a deceleration in mortality since 2005, with the annual percentage change decreasing from 4.1 (2001-2005) to 1.0 (2005-2014). These increasing trends in pancreatic cancer were observed in most subgroups (stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, stage, tumor site, and size).

Conclusion: The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in the USA have increased significantly since 2000, highlighting the need for increased preventive, screening, and surveillance efforts.

Keywords: SEER; epidemiology; incidence; mortality; pancreatic cancer; trend.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in pancreatic cancer incidence during 2000–2014. Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: *The annual percentage change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the alpha=0.05 level. Final selected model: 0 joinpoints.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Trends in pancreatic cancer mortality during 2000–2014. Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: *The annual percentage change (APC) is significantly different from zero at the alpha=0.05 level. Final selected model: 1 joinpoint.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trends in pancreatic cancer incidence during 2000–2014 stratified by age subgroups. Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: *p<0.05.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Trends in pancreatic cancer mortality during 2000–2014 stratified by age subgroups. Rates were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population. Note: *p<0.05.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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