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. 2018 Sep;108(9):1241-1248.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304559. Epub 2018 Jul 19.

Risk of Police-Involved Death by Race/Ethnicity and Place, United States, 2012-2018

Frank Edwards  1 , Michael H Esposito  1 , Hedwig Lee  1
Affiliations

Risk of Police-Involved Death by Race/Ethnicity and Place, United States, 2012-2018

Frank Edwards et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Sep.

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the risk of mortality from police homicide by race/ethnicity and place in the United States.

Methods: We used novel data on police-involved fatalities and Bayesian models to estimate mortality risk for Black, Latino, and White men for all US counties by Census division and metropolitan area type.

Results: Police kill, on average, 2.8 men per day. Police were responsible for about 8% of all homicides with adult male victims between 2012 and 2018. Black men's mortality risk is between 1.9 and 2.4 deaths per 100 000 per year, Latino risk is between 0.8 and 1.2, and White risk is between 0.6 and 0.7.

Conclusions: Police homicide risk is higher than suggested by official data. Black and Latino men are at higher risk for death than are White men, and these disparities vary markedly across place. Public Health Implications. Homicide reduction efforts should consider interventions to reduce the use of lethal force by police. Efforts to address unequal police violence should target places with high mortality risk.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Adult Male Police-Involved Mortality Rates (per Year, per 100 000 Population) by Census Division and Race/Ethnicity: Fatal Encounters Dataset, United States January 1, 2012, to February 12, 2018 Note. Density of posterior predictions and observed values (points) are plotted.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Adult Male Police-Involved Mortality Rates (per Year, per 100 000 Population) by County Metropolitan Type and Race/Ethnicity: Fatal Encounters Dataset, United States, January 1, 2012–February 12, 2018 Note. Density of posterior predictions and observed values (points) are plotted.
FIGURE 3—
FIGURE 3—
Adult Male Police Homicide Risk Ratios, by Race/Ethnicity, Census Division, and Metropolitan Type: Fatal Encounters Dataset, United States, January 1, 2012–February 12, 2018 Note. MRR = mortality risk ratio. Large points indicate that the 95% posterior prediction interval does not include 1.
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