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Multicenter Study
. 2018 Aug;41(8):1084-1090.
doi: 10.1002/clc.23032. Epub 2018 Aug 17.

A risk score assessment tool for peripheral arterial disease in women: From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Hend Mansoor  1 , Islam Y Elgendy  2 , Renessa S Williams  3 , Verlin W Joseph  4 , Young-Rock Hong  1 , Arch G Mainous  1
Affiliations
Multicenter Study

A risk score assessment tool for peripheral arterial disease in women: From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Hend Mansoor et al. Clin Cardiol. 2018 Aug.

Abstract

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) carries a significant morbidity and mortality. Women are more commonly affected with this condition and are mostly asymptomatic, and undertreated. The objective of the study was to develop and validate a simple risk score to identify women with PAD.

Hypothesis: Identifying those at early stage of the disease could help reduce the risk of complications.

Methods: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004, we identified women who had data on ankle brachial index. The cohort was divided into development (70%) and validation (30%) groups. Using variables that are self-reported or measured without laboratory data, we developed a multivariable logistic regression to predict PAD, which was evaluated in the validation cohort.

Results: A total of 150.6 million women were included. A diagnosis of PAD was reported in 13.7%. Age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking, non-oral contraceptive pill usage, and parity were all independently associated with PAD. The C-statistics was 0.74, with good calibration. The model showed good stability in the validation cohort (C-statistics 0.73).

Conclusion: This parsimonious risk model is a valid tool for risk prediction of PAD in women, and could be easily applied in routine clinical practice.

Keywords: peripheral artery disease; prediction; risk score; women.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no potential conflict of interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Study flow diagram
Figure 2
Figure 2
A, Area under the curve for the development cohort, C‐statistics = 0.74; B, area under the curve for the validation cohort, C‐statistics = 0.73
Figure 3
Figure 3
A, Frequency of risk scores from the validation cohort. Brackets indicate proportion of participants in low‐risk (0‐1), intermediate‐risk (2‐3), and high‐risk groups (≥4); B, frequency of PAD for risk groups in the development and validation cohorts
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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