Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Suicide Mortality in South Korea, 1992⁻2015

Abstract

Although the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on suicide are important, previous work in this area may have been invalid because of an identification problem. We analyzed these effects under three different scenarios to identify vulnerable groups and thus overcame the identification problem. We extracted the annual numbers of suicides from the National Death Register of Korea (1992⁻2015) and estimated the APC effects. The annual average suicide rates in 1992⁻2015 were 31.5 and 14.7 per 100,000 males and females, respectively. The APC effects on suicide were similar in both sexes. The age effect was clearly higher in older subjects, in contrast to the minimal changes apparent during earlier adulthood. The birth cohort effect showed an inverted U shape; a higher cohort effect was evident in females born in the early 1980s when period drift was larger than 3.7%/year. Period effect increased sharply during the early 1990s and 2000s. We found that elderly and young females may be at a particularly high risk of suicide in Korea.

Keywords: Korea; age; and cohort effects; identification problem; period; suicide.

Figure 1

Age-specific and -standardized suicide rates per 100,000 males (a) and females (b) in 1991–2015.

Figure 2

Age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on suicide for males (a) and females (b). The y-axes indicate suicide rates per 100,000 persons by age, and rate ratios by the birth cohort and period.