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Meta-Analysis
. 2018 Oct;42(10):1939-1950.
doi: 10.1111/acer.13859. Epub 2018 Aug 23.

Trends in Adult Alcohol Use and Binge Drinking in the Early 21st-Century United States: A Meta-Analysis of 6 National Survey Series

Richard A Grucza  1 , Kenneth J Sher  2 , William C Kerr  3 , Melissa J Krauss  1 , Camillia K Lui  3 , Yoanna E McDowell  2 , Sarah Hartz  1 , Gurpal Virdi  1 , Laura J Bierut  1
Affiliations
Meta-Analysis

Trends in Adult Alcohol Use and Binge Drinking in the Early 21st-Century United States: A Meta-Analysis of 6 National Survey Series

Richard A Grucza et al. Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2018 Oct.

Abstract

Background: Recent trends in alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related emergency room admissions, and alcohol use disorder prevalence as measured by general-population surveys have raised concerns about rising alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. In contrast, upward trends in per capita alcohol consumption have been comparatively modest.

Methods: To resolve these discordant observations, we sought to examine trends in the prevalence of alcohol use and binge drinking from 6 regularly or periodically administered national surveys using a meta-analytic approach. Annual or periodic prevalence estimates for past-12-month or past-30-day alcohol use and binge drinking were estimated for available time points between the years 2000 and 2016. Estimates were combined in a random-effects regression model in which prevalence was modeled as a log-linear function of time to obtain meta-analytic trend estimates for the full population and by sex, race, age, and educational attainment.

Results: Meta-analysis-derived estimates of average annual percentage increase in the prevalence of alcohol use and binge drinking were 0.30% per year (95% CI: 0.22%, 0.38%) and 0.72% per year (95% CI: 0.46%, 0.98%), respectively. There was substantial between-survey heterogeneity among trend estimates, although there was notable consistency in the degree to which trends have impacted various demographic groups. For example, most surveys found that the changes in prevalence for alcohol use and binge drinking were large and positive for ages 50 to 64 and 65 and up, and smaller, negative, or nonsignificant for ages 18 to 29.

Conclusions: Significant increases in the prevalence of alcohol use and of binge drinking over the past 10 to 15 years were observed, but not for all demographic groups. However, the increase in binge drinking among middle-aged and older adults is substantial and may be driving increasing rates of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: Adults; Binge Drinking; Epidemiology; Morbidity; Trends.

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Conflict of interest statement

Interests: LJB is listed as an inventor on issued U.S. patent 8,080,371, “Markers for Addiction,” covering the use of certain SNPs in determining the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of addiction. Other authors have no interests to declare.

Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Yearly prevalence estimates for (A) past year or past month alcohol use and (B) past year or past month binge drinking. Trend lines are derived from regression analyses of outcome as a function of year with dummy-indicators used to specify additional intercept parameters to reflect changes in item wording or other design changes.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
Forest plot of regression coefficients describing the association between prevalence of alcohol use and year for each of the six survey series and meta-analysis regression coefficient. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals
Figure 3:
Figure 3:
Simulated trend lines for past year alcohol use prevalence based on trend estimates from meta-analysis and using 2002 NSDUH data to establish baseline prevalence.
Figure 4:
Figure 4:
Forest plot of regression coefficients describing the association between prevalence of binge drinking and year for each of the six survey series and meta-analysis regression coefficient. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 5:
Figure 5:
Simulated trend lines for past year binge drinking prevalence based on trend estimates from meta-analysis and using 2002 NSDUH data to establish baseline prevalence.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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