Comparative performance of AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk scores in predicting long-term adverse events in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Abstract

Objective: This study is designed to evaluate the recently developed AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) risk score (RS), which determines the predisposition to thromboembolic and hemorrhagic events in atrial fibrillation, as a predictor of prognosis in patients having acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and to compare the predictive ability of ATRIA RS with GRACE RS.

Methods: We analyzed 1627 patients having AMI who underwent coronary angiography and/or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between January 2011 and February 2015. The primary endpoints included all-cause mortality, non-fatal MI, and cerebrovascular events during follow-up.

Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the ATRIA RS>3 was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events in patients with AMI [hazard ratio, 2.00, 95% confidence interval, 1.54 to 2.60, p<0,001]. The area under the curve (AUC) for ATRIA RS and GRACE RS was 0.66 and 0.67 (p<0.001, and p<0.001), respectively. We performed a pair-wise comparison of receiver operating characteristic curves,and noted the predictive value of ATRIA RS with regard to primary endpoints was similar to that of GRACE RS (By DeLong method, AUCATRIA vs. AUCGRACE z test=0.64, p=0.52).

Conclusion: ATRIA RS may be useful in predicting prognosis in patients having AMI during long-term follow-up.

Figure 1

Kaplan-Meier curves for primary endpoints at long-term follow-up

Figure 2

ROC analysis comparing the performance and predictive accuracy of ATRIA RS, GRACE RS, CHA2DS2-VASc RS, and CHADS RS for primary endpoints