A simple prognostic index for Shigatoxin-related hemolytic uremic syndrome at onset: data from the ItalKid-HUS network

Abstract

Shigatoxin Escherichia coli-related hemolytic uremic syndrome (eHUS) is a severe thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) burdened by life-threatening complications and long-term sequelae. Since hemoconcentration is associated with worse outcome, we tried to develop a reliable and easy-to-calculate index for predicting complications and sequelae based on hemoglobin (Hb) at presentation. The first laboratory examinations with signs of TMA in eHUS patients were analyzed in relation to the outcomes with the receiver operating characteristic curves and their areas under the curve (AUC) for Hb and creatinine (sCr). A total of 197 eHUS patients were identified of whom 24% did not have anemia at presentation. Hb level was the best predictor of a poor outcome (AUC 0.67) but the combination of Hb with sCr, in the formula [(Hb in g/dL + (sCr in mg/dL × 2)], showed an even better AUC of 0.75. The described scoring system was also strongly associated and predictive of all complications and health care needs (8% of patients with scoring > 13 died or entered a permanent vegetative state compared with 0% of those with ≤ 13).Conclusion: The presented score is a simple and early predictor of both short- and long-term outcomes and identifies patients who should undergo rapid volume expansion to counteract hemoconcentration, the spreading of microvascular thrombosis, and the consequent increased organ damage. What is Known: • In eHUS, hemoconcentration is associated with worse short- and long-term outcome. • A prognostic index to identify patients at higher risk for complications at presentation is not available. What is New: • We developed a simple and early prognostic index for eHUS outcome with the combination of Hb and sCr at onset, in the following formula [(Hb in g/dL + (sCr in mg/dL × 2)]. • The proposed HUS Severity Score can promptly identify patients with good outcome and those with high risk of worse short- and long-term outcome.

Keywords: Hemolytic uremic syndrome; Prognostic index; Shigatoxin Escherichia coli infection; Thrombotic microangiopathy.