Delphi Prospection on Additive Manufacturing in 2030: Implications for Education and Employment in Spain

Abstract

The term additive manufacturing (AM) groups together a set of technologies with similar characteristics forming part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. AM is being developed globally, as evidenced by the standards published by and the agreements between the ISO and the ASTM in 2013. The purpose of this paper is to anticipate the main changes that will occur in AM by 2030 as forecast by more than 100 Spanish experts through Delphi prospection performed in 2018. In this way, the areas, aspects, and business models with the greatest probabilities of occurrence are obtained. The need for technical experts with specific knowledge and skills requires changes to current training syllabuses. Such changes will enable students to have the profiles foreseen in these job trends. The encouragement of STEAM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts, and Mathematics) training through the introduction of AM in study plans may be an appropriate alternative. Finally, the consequences of the Fourth Industrial Revolution for the employment market and on jobs, particularly in Spain, are set out and the latest Spanish Research, Development, and Innovation (R&D + I) plans are summarized as the framework for the possible implementation and development of AM.

Keywords: 3D printing; additive manufacturing; delphi prospection; education; employment.

Figure 1

Main phases in the Delphi process.

Figure 2

Main steps in the prospection process.

Figure 3

Participation of experts, graphic view based on the location of their centers or universities.

Figure 4

Results of Block 1 questions (%).

Figure 5

Results of Block 2 questions (%).

Figure 6

Probability of the distribution of the occupied population in Spain according to the level of automation. A Agriculture, farming, forestry, and fisheries; B Extractive industries; C Manufacturing industry; D Energy supply (electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning); E Water supply and treatment, waste management; F Construction; G Wholesale and retail trade, motor industry; H Transport and storage; I Hotel and catering trade; J Information and communications; K Financial and insurance activities; L Real estate activities; M Professional, scientific, and technical activities; N Clerical activities and ancillary services; O Public Administration and defence, Social Security; P Education; Q Healthcare activities and social services; R Artistic, leisure, and entertainment activities; S Other services; T Domestic service activities in households.