Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

Katherine L Yates¹, Phil J Bouchet², M Julian Caley³, Kerrie Mengersen³, Christophe F Randin⁴, Stephen Parnell⁵, Alan H Fielding⁶, Andrew J Bamford⁷, Stephen Ban⁸, A Márcia Barbosa⁹, Carsten F Dormann¹⁰, Jane Elith¹¹, Clare B Embling¹², Gary N Ervin¹³, Rebecca Fisher¹⁴, Susan Gould¹⁵, Roland F Graf¹⁶, Edward J Gregr¹⁷, Patrick N Halpin¹⁸, Risto K Heikkinen¹⁹, Stefan Heinänen²⁰, Alice R Jones²¹, Periyadan K Krishnakumar²², Valentina Lauria²³, Hector Lozano-Montes²⁴, Laura Mannocci²⁵, Camille Mellin²⁶, Mohsen B Mesgaran²⁷, Elena Moreno-Amat²⁸, Sophie Mormede²⁹, Emilie Novaczek³⁰, Steffen Oppel³¹, Guillermo Ortuño Crespo¹⁸, A Townsend Peterson³², Giovanni Rapacciuolo³³, Jason J Roberts¹⁸, Rebecca E Ross¹², Kylie L Scales³⁴, David Schoeman³⁵, Paul Snelgrove³⁶, Göran Sundblad³⁷, Wilfried Thuiller³⁸, Leigh G Torres³⁹, Heroen Verbruggen¹¹, Lifei Wang⁴⁰, Seth Wenger⁴¹, Mark J Whittingham⁴², Yuri Zharikov⁴³, Damaris Zurell⁴⁴, Ana M M Sequeira⁴⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK; Centre for Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Joint first authors. Electronic address: K.L.Yates@Salford.ac.uk.
² School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; Joint first authors.
³ ARC Centre for Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
⁴ Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁵ School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK.
⁶ Haworth Conservation Ltd, Bunessan, Isle of Mull, Scotland.
⁷ Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire, GL2 7BT, UK.
⁸ Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, #410-698 Seymour Street, Vancouver, BC V6B 3K6, Canada.
⁹ CIBIO/InBIO-Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade de Évora, 7004-516 Évora, Portugal.
¹⁰ Biometry & Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany.
¹¹ School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia.
¹² School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK.
¹³ Department of Biological Sciences, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
¹⁴ Australian Institute of Marine Science & UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
¹⁵ Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Building G01, Room 2.25, Gold Coast Campus, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, QLD 4222, Australia.
¹⁶ ZHAW Zürich University of Applied Sciences, CH-8820 Wädenswil, Switzerland.
¹⁷ Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 2202 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, Canada; SciTech Environmental Consulting, 2136 Napier Street, Vancouver, BC V5L 2N9, Canada.
¹⁸ Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
¹⁹ Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland.
²⁰ DHI, Ecology and Environment Department, Agern Allé 5, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark.
²¹ The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
²² Center for Environment and Water, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia.
²³ Instituto per l'Ambiente Marino Costiero, IAMC-CNR, Mazara del Vallo, Trapani, Italy.
²⁴ CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
²⁵ Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA; UMR MARBEC (IRD, Ifremer, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, Av. Jean Monnet, CS 30171, 34203 Sète, France.
²⁶ Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No 3, Townsville 4810, QLD, Australia; The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
²⁷ Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
²⁸ Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain.
²⁹ National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 301 Evans Bay Parade, Wellington 6012, New Zealand.
³⁰ Marine Geomatics Research Lab, Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.
³¹ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
³² Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA.
³³ University of California, Merced, 5200 N Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95230, USA.
³⁴ School of Science & Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia.
³⁵ School of Science & Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia; Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.
³⁶ Department of Ocean Sciences and Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada.
³⁷ Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Stångholmsvägen 2, 178 93 Drottningholm, Sweden.
³⁸ Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), Grenoble F-38000, France.
³⁹ Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 2030 Southeast Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR 97365, USA.
⁴⁰ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada; Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA.
⁴¹ Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30601, USA.
⁴² Biology, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK.
⁴³ Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, Parks Canada Agency, Box 280, Ucluelet, BC V0R 3A0, Canada.
⁴⁴ Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Dept. Landscape Dynamics, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Dept., Unter den Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
⁴⁵ School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; IOMRC and The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.

PMID: 30166069
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Free article

Review

Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

Katherine L Yates et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2018 Oct.

Free article

. 2018 Oct;33(10):790-802.

doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001. Epub 2018 Aug 27.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK; Centre for Excellence in Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Joint first authors. Electronic address: K.L.Yates@Salford.ac.uk.
² School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; Joint first authors.
³ ARC Centre for Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
⁴ Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
⁵ School of Environment and Life Sciences, University of Salford, Manchester, UK.
⁶ Haworth Conservation Ltd, Bunessan, Isle of Mull, Scotland.
⁷ Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucestershire, GL2 7BT, UK.
⁸ Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, #410-698 Seymour Street, Vancouver, BC V6B 3K6, Canada.
⁹ CIBIO/InBIO-Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Universidade de Évora, 7004-516 Évora, Portugal.
¹⁰ Biometry & Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany.
¹¹ School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia.
¹² School of Biological and Marine Sciences, Plymouth University, Drake Circus, Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK.
¹³ Department of Biological Sciences, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39762, USA.
¹⁴ Australian Institute of Marine Science & UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
¹⁵ Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Building G01, Room 2.25, Gold Coast Campus, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, QLD 4222, Australia.
¹⁶ ZHAW Zürich University of Applied Sciences, CH-8820 Wädenswil, Switzerland.
¹⁷ Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, AERL Building, 2202 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, Canada; SciTech Environmental Consulting, 2136 Napier Street, Vancouver, BC V5L 2N9, Canada.
¹⁸ Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
¹⁹ Finnish Environment Institute, Biodiversity Centre, PO Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland.
²⁰ DHI, Ecology and Environment Department, Agern Allé 5, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark.
²¹ The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
²² Center for Environment and Water, Research Institute, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia.
²³ Instituto per l'Ambiente Marino Costiero, IAMC-CNR, Mazara del Vallo, Trapani, Italy.
²⁴ CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.
²⁵ Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA; UMR MARBEC (IRD, Ifremer, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer, Av. Jean Monnet, CS 30171, 34203 Sète, France.
²⁶ Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No 3, Townsville 4810, QLD, Australia; The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
²⁷ Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
²⁸ Departamento de Sistemas y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain.
²⁹ National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 301 Evans Bay Parade, Wellington 6012, New Zealand.
³⁰ Marine Geomatics Research Lab, Department of Geography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.
³¹ RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK.
³² Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA.
³³ University of California, Merced, 5200 N Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95230, USA.
³⁴ School of Science & Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia.
³⁵ School of Science & Engineering, The University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia; Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa.
³⁶ Department of Ocean Sciences and Department of Biology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada.
³⁷ Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Stångholmsvägen 2, 178 93 Drottningholm, Sweden.
³⁸ Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), Grenoble F-38000, France.
³⁹ Marine Mammal Institute, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, 2030 Southeast Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR 97365, USA.
⁴⁰ Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 3B2, Canada; Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, ME 04101, USA.
⁴¹ Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30601, USA.
⁴² Biology, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK.
⁴³ Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, Parks Canada Agency, Box 280, Ucluelet, BC V0R 3A0, Canada.
⁴⁴ Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Dept. Landscape Dynamics, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Geography Dept., Unter den Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
⁴⁵ School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia; IOMRC and The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia.

PMID: 30166069
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Abstract

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

Keywords: Predictive modeling; extrapolation; generality; habitat models; model transfers; species distribution models; uncertainty.

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Comment in

Transferability of Mechanistic Ecological Models Is About Emergence.
Radchuk V, Kramer-Schadt S, Grimm V. Radchuk V, et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2019 Jun;34(6):487-488. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.01.010. Epub 2019 Feb 19. Trends Ecol Evol. 2019. PMID: 30795841 No abstract available.
Better Model Transfers Require Knowledge of Mechanisms.
Bouchet PJ, Peterson AT, Zurell D, Dormann CF, Schoeman D, Ross RE, Snelgrove P, Sequeira AMM, Whittingham MJ, Wang L, Rapacciuolo G, Oppel S, Mellin C, Lauria V, Krishnakumar PK, Jones AR, Heinänen S, Heikkinen RK, Gregr EJ, Fielding AH, Caley MJ, Barbosa AM, Bamford AJ, Lozano-Montes H, Parnell S, Wenger S, Yates KL. Bouchet PJ, et al. Trends Ecol Evol. 2019 Jun;34(6):489-490. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2019.04.006. Epub 2019 May 2. Trends Ecol Evol. 2019. PMID: 31054858 No abstract available.

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Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

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Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models

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