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. 2018 Aug 29;4(8):eaaq0932.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aaq0932. eCollection 2018 Aug.

The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures

Allegra Mayer  1 , Zeke Hausfather  2 , Andrew D Jones  3 , Whendee L Silver  1
Affiliations

The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures

Allegra Mayer et al. Sci Adv. .

Abstract

Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year-1 for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Impact of constant global rates of C sequestration (Pg C year−1) on mean surface temperatures by target year (2016–2100) for a climate sensitivity of 3°C per doubling of atmospheric CO2.
A 0.1°C reduction is highlighted by white lines. Different graphs indicate different RCP scenarios. Bars show the range of continued C sequestration rates needed to achieve a 0.1°C reduction in 2050, 2075, and 2100, respectively, under a range of alternative climate sensitivities from 1.5°C per doubling (upper bound) to 4.5°C per doubling (lower bound) (32). Upward arrows represent low CO2 sensitivity upper bounds that are higher than the range of C sequestration rates (0 to 2 Pg C year−1) considered in this study; error bars are not symmetric around the 0.1°C reduction line due to nonlinearities in CO2 forcing.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Impact of SOC sequestration rate (Pg C year−1) and effective sequestration years on 2100 global mean surface temperature for a climate sensitivity of 3°C per doubling CO2 with a 0.1°C reduction (highlighted by a white line).
A range of potential C sequestration rates are shown in the center of the chart, as well as their combined potential (black solid). The vertical dashed line shows the mean estimated potential of 0.83 Pg C year−1 for reference.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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