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Review
. 2014 Nov;1(2):105-114.
doi: 10.2217/mmt.14.15. Epub 2014 Dec 4.

Predicting melanoma risk: theory, practice and future challenges

David Whiteman  1
Affiliations
Review

Predicting melanoma risk: theory, practice and future challenges

David Whiteman. Melanoma Manag. 2014 Nov.

Abstract

The incidence of melanoma continues to rise in most fair-skinned populations. Strategies to curb the toll from melanoma include targeting the patients who are at highest risk with the aim of either preventing the onset of cancer or intervening early in order to improve survival. The challenge has been to synthesize the available information on risk factors into prediction tools with clinical utility, such that 'high-risk' patients can be identified with accuracy. While a number of risk prediction tools for melanoma have been developed, few have undergone rigorous evaluation of their performance in order to assess calibration or discrimination, and even fewer have been validated in independent populations. Future research should assess the validity of existing tools and seek to integrate the increasing volumes of data being generated by genomic studies.

Keywords: cancer control; early detection; melanoma; prevention; risk factors; risk prediction; risk stratification.

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Conflict of interest statement

Financial & competing interests disclosure D Whiteman is supported by a Research Fellowship (APP1058522) from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. The author has no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.

References

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    2. • One of a series of papers in the British Medical Journal that describe the theory and practice of risk prediction. This paper is recommended for clinicians with an interest in the practical aspects of risk prediction.

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