Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2018 Sep 17;18(1):214.
doi: 10.1186/s12909-018-1316-x.

Selection into medicine: the predictive validity of an outcome-based procedure

Sanne Schreurs  1 , Kitty B Cleutjens  2 , Arno M M Muijtjens  3 , Jennifer Cleland  4 , Mirjam G A Oude Egbrink  5
Affiliations

Selection into medicine: the predictive validity of an outcome-based procedure

Sanne Schreurs et al. BMC Med Educ. .

Abstract

Background: Medical schools must select students from a large pool of well-qualified applicants. A challenging issue set forward in the broader literature is that of which cognitive and (inter)personal qualities should be measured to predict diverse later performance. To address this gap, we designed a 'backward chaining' approach to selection, based on the competences of a 'good doctor'. Our aim was to examine if this outcome-based selection procedure was predictive of study success in a medical bachelor program.

Methods: We designed a multi-tool selection procedure, blueprinted to the CanMEDS competency framework. The relationship between performance at selection and later study success across a three-year bachelor program was examined in three cohorts. Study results were compared between selection-positive and selection-negative (i.e. primarily rejected) students.

Results: Selection-positive students outperformed their selection-negative counterparts throughout the entire bachelor program on assessments measuring cognitive (e.g. written exams), (inter)personal and combined outcomes (i.e. OSCEs). Of the 30 outcome variables, selection-positive students scored significantly higher in 11 cases. Fifteen other, non-significant between-group differences were also in favor of the selection-positives. An overall comparison using a sign test indicated a significant difference between both groups (p < 0.001), despite equal pre-university GPAs.

Conclusions: The use of an outcome-based selection approach seems to address some of the predictive validity limitations of commonly-used selection tools. Selection-positive students significantly outperformed their selection-negative counterparts across a range of cognitive, (inter)personal, and mixed outcomes throughout the entire three-year bachelor in medicine.

Keywords: Backward chaining; Outcome-based; Predictive validity; Selection.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Authors’ information

SANNE SCHREURS, PhD candidate, Maastricht University.

KITTY CLEUTJENS, PhD, Associate Professor, Maastricht University.

ARNO MUIJTJENS, PhD, Statistician-Methodologist, Associate Professor, Maastricht University.

JENNIFER CLELAND, PhD, John Simpson Chair of Medical education, University of Aberdeen, Chair of the ASME.

MIRJAM OUDE EGBRINK, PhD, MHPE, Professor of Implementation of Educational Innovations, Maastricht University.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

During the selection procedure, applicants were asked to give their informed consent for the use of their selection and assessment data for research purposes. It was made clear that not taking part in the study would not adversely influence their progression. All selection applicants agreed to participate. Participant data was anonymized before it was shared with the research team. The study was approved by the Ethical Review Board of the Netherlands Association for Medical Education (NVMO; file number 303).

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Visual representation of the use of backward chaining from the desired end goal (‘good doctors’) to create an outcome-based selection procedure
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Study outcomes of selection-positive (SP) and selection-negative (SN) students on cognitive assignments, i.e. the end-of-course cognitive tests in year 3 (a) and the progress tests (b), the (inter)personally oriented CORE program (c) and the OSCEs (d) throughout the three-year bachelor phase. * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.005
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Cleland J, Dowell J, McLachlan J, Nicholson S, Patterson F. Identifying best practice in the selection of medical students (literature review and interview survey); 2012. https://www.sgptg.org/app/download/7964849/Identifying_best_practice_in_.... Accessed 02 July 2015.
    1. Patterson F, Knight A, Dowell J, Nicholson S, Cousans F, Cleland J. How effective are selection methods in medical education? A systematic review. Med Educ. 2016;50(1):36–60. doi: 10.1111/medu.12817. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Prideaux D, Roberts C, Eva K, Centeno A, Mccrorie P, Mcmanus C, Patterson F, Powis D, Tekian A, Wilkinson D. Assessment for selection for the health care professions and specialty training: consensus statement and recommendations from the Ottawa 2010 conference. Med Teach. 2011;33(3):215–223. doi: 10.3109/0142159X.2011.551560. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Girotti JA, Park YS, Tekian A. Ensuring a fair and equitable selection of students to serve society's health care needs. Med Educ. 2015;49(1):84–92. doi: 10.1111/medu.12506. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Patterson F, Lievens F, Kerrin M, Munro N, Irish B. The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies. Brit J Gen Pract. 2013;63(616):E734–E741. doi: 10.3399/bjgp13X674413. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources