[Tobacco-associated cancers in Germany-incidence and mortality trends since 1995]

Abstract

Background and objectives: Tobacco consumption is the most important cancer risk factor. In Germany, about 15% of all new cancer cases can be attributed to smoking. The aim of this paper is to analyze the incidence and mortality trends in tobacco-associated cancer cases in Germany for the last two decades.

Materials and methods: Age standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated for tumors of the upper aerodigestive tract and lower urinary tract for the period from 1995 to 2014/2015. In addition, average annual percentage changes were calculated with joinpoint regression analysis. Regarding lung cancer, trends in incidence and mortality rates were also stratified by different age groups and trends in mortality rates were analyzed by birth cohorts.

Results: The incidence and mortality rates among men are declining for all tobacco-associated cancers except esophageal cancer. Lung cancer mortality rates showed the greatest decrease with -1.9% on average per year. The incidence rates among women increased for all tobacco-associated cancers except lower urinary tract cancers. The increase in lung cancer incidence was greatest with 3.3% on average per year. Among men there was a continuous decline over all birth cohorts regarding the chance of dying of lung cancer at a certain age. Among women, the chance of dying of lung cancer increased for all birth cohorts until 1960.

Conclusions: The present analyses regarding tobacco-associated cancers in Germany reflect the changes in smoking prevalence with a deferment of multiple decades.

Keywords: Annual percentage changes; Birth cohorts; Cancer registry data; Lung cancer; Tobacco consumption.