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. 2021 Mar;28(10):12334-12350.
doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-3194-5. Epub 2018 Sep 27.

Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements

Matheus Gemignani  1 , Guido J Rostegui  2 , Nelson Kagan  2 , Carlos F M Almeida  2
Affiliations

Solar radiation synthetic series for power purchase agreements

Matheus Gemignani et al. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

The present paper proposes a methodology based on the implementation and assessment of autoregressive (AR) solar radiation models for generating synthetic series and providing guidance on bidding strategies for power purchase agreements. The work considered conventional and periodic AR models with different lag orders, assessing the models against real solar radiation measurements. The synthetic series generation process developed 1000 1-year monthly solar radiation scenarios that were later employed for simulating electric energy production and power purchase agreement models. This application allowed one to evaluate the risk associated with the energy supply security, supporting bidding strategies in energy auctions. A real study case is also illustrated in detail, referring to a spot in the Brazilian best irradiance area.

Keywords: Energy auctions; Renewable energy; Solar radiation; Stochastic models; Synthetic series.

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