Measuring human capital: a systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016

Abstract

Background: Human capital is recognised as the level of education and health in a population and is considered an important determinant of economic growth. The World Bank has called for measurement and annual reporting of human capital to track and motivate investments in health and education and enhance productivity. We aim to provide a new comprehensive measure of human capital across countries globally.

Methods: We generated a period measure of expected human capital, defined for each birth cohort as the expected years lived from age 20 to 64 years and adjusted for educational attainment, learning or education quality, and functional health status using rates specific to each time period, age, and sex for 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. We estimated educational attainment using 2522 censuses and household surveys; we based learning estimates on 1894 tests among school-aged children; and we based functional health status on the prevalence of seven health conditions, which were taken from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Mortality rates specific to location, age, and sex were also taken from GBD 2016.

Findings: In 2016, Finland had the highest level of expected human capital of 28·4 health, education, and learning-adjusted expected years lived between age 20 and 64 years (95% uncertainty interval 27·5-29·2); Niger had the lowest expected human capital of less than 1·6 years (0·98-2·6). In 2016, 44 countries had already achieved more than 20 years of expected human capital; 68 countries had expected human capital of less than 10 years. Of 195 countries, the ten most populous countries in 2016 for expected human capital were ranked: China at 44, India at 158, USA at 27, Indonesia at 131, Brazil at 71, Pakistan at 164, Nigeria at 171, Bangladesh at 161, Russia at 49, and Mexico at 104. Assessment of change in expected human capital from 1990 to 2016 shows marked variation from less than 2 years of progress in 18 countries to more than 5 years of progress in 35 countries. Larger improvements in expected human capital appear to be associated with faster economic growth. The top quartile of countries in terms of absolute change in human capital from 1990 to 2016 had a median annualised growth in gross domestic product of 2·60% (IQR 1·85-3·69) compared with 1·45% (0·18-2·19) for countries in the bottom quartile.

Interpretation: Countries vary widely in the rate of human capital formation. Monitoring the production of human capital can facilitate a mechanism to hold governments and donors accountable for investments in health and education.

Funding: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Figure 1

Expected human capital in 1990 and 2016 for the 20 largest countries in the world, by 2016 total population The effect of progressively combining the four components of human capital—expected years lived from 20 to 64 years of age, mean years of education, learning, and functional health status—in the largest 20 countries in the world differs by country and year.

Figure 2

Country rankings and values for expected human capital and for each of its four components, in 1990 and 2016 195 countries are ranked by their expected human capital in 1990 and 2016

Figure 2

Country rankings and values for expected human capital and for each of its four components, in 1990 and 2016 195 countries are ranked by their expected human capital in 1990 and 2016

Figure 2

Country rankings and values for expected human capital and for each of its four components, in 1990 and 2016 195 countries are ranked by their expected human capital in 1990 and 2016

Figure 2

Country rankings and values for expected human capital and for each of its four components, in 1990 and 2016 195 countries are ranked by their expected human capital in 1990 and 2016

Figure 2

Country rankings and values for expected human capital and for each of its four components, in 1990 and 2016 195 countries are ranked by their expected human capital in 1990 and 2016

Figure 3

Expected human capital by country in 1990 (A) and 2016 (B) ATG=Antigua and Barbuda. VCT=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. FSM=Federated States of Micronesia. LCA=Saint Lucia. TTO=Trinidad and Tobago. TLS=Timor-Leste.

Figure 4

Change in expected human capital and for each of its four components, from 1990 to 2016, compared to 1990 levels Countries categorised into regions according to the Global Burden of Disease super-regions. (A) Expected human capital. (B) Expected years lived, ages 20–64 years. (C) Functional health status. (D) Educational attainment. (E) Learning.

Figure 5

Difference between men and women in expected human capital and for each of its four components, 2016 Countries categorised into regions according to the Global Burden of Disease super-regions. (A) Expected human capital. (B) Expected years lived, ages 20–64 years. (C) Functional health status. (D) Educational attainment. (E) Learning.

Figure 6

Association between expected human capital and GDP per capita, 1990 and 2016 Countries categorised into regions according to the Global Burden of Disease super-regions. General movement to the right and upwards shows global economic, health, and education development between 1990 and 2016. Expected human capital and GDP per capita in 1990 (A) and 2016 (B). Expected human capital and GDP per capita in log space in 1990 (C) and 2016 (D). GDP per capita is measured in 2017 US$ at PPP. GDP=gross domestic product. PPP=purchasing power parity.

Figure 7

Median and IQR of GDP per capita within each quartile of expected human capital in 1990 (A) and 2016 (B), and median and IQR of annual change in GDP per capita within each quartile of change in expected human capital from 1990 to 2016 (C) GDP=gross domestic product.