The trend of burn mortality in Iran - A study of fire, heat and hot substance-related fatal injuries from 1990 to 2015

Abstract

Introduction: Burn injuries are a major cause of preventable mortality worldwide. To implement preventive strategies, a detailed understanding of the rate and trend of fatal burn injuries is needed. The aim of this study was to determine the rate and trend of burn mortality at national and province level in Iran from 1990 to 2015.

Materials and methods: The data were retrieved from various sources: the Death Registration System, cemetery databases, the Demographic and Health Survey and three national population and housing censuses. ICD-10 codes were converted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) codes for comparability. After addressing the incompleteness of death data, statistical methods such as spatio-temporal modelling and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) were applied to estimate the levels and trend of death and cause specific mortality.

Results: The number of deaths due to burning across Iran was 80,625, with a male to female ratio of 0.88, 0.94 and 1.14 in 1990, 1995 and 2015, respectively. The annual percentage change of age-standardized death rate from 1990 to 2015 was -5.42% and -4.22% in women and men, respectively. The burn-related age-standardized mortality rate decreased considerably from 5.97 in 1990 to 1.74 per 100,000 in 2015. The mortality rate due to burns was highest among those aged more than 85 years, especially in Ilam province.

Conclusion: This study showed a decline in burn mortality in Iran from 1990 to 2015. Continued efforts to reduce the burden of burns are needed to accelerate this progress and prevent injuries.

Keywords: Burns; Iran; Mortality; Trend.