Comparative assessment of prognostic models in chronic lymphocytic leukemia: evaluation in Indian cohort

Abstract

Prognostic indices combining several clinical and laboratory parameters have been proposed for prognostication in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Recently, international consortium on CLL proposed an international prognostic index (CLL-IPI) integrating clinical, molecular, and genetic parameters. The present study was designed to evaluate the reproducibility of CLL-IPI in Indian CLL cohort. The prognostic ability of CLL-IPI in terms of overall survival (OS) and time to first treatment (TTFT) was investigated in treatment-naive CLL patients and also compared with other existing prognostic scores. For assigning scores, clinical and laboratory details were obtained from medical records, and IGHV gene mutation status, β2-microglobulin levels, and copy number variations were determined using c-DNA, ELISA, and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA), respectively. The scores were generated as per the weighted grades assigned to each variable involved in score categorization. The predictive value of prognostic models was assessed and compared using Harrell's C-index and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Stratification of patients according to CLL-IPI yielded significant differences in terms of OS and TTFT (p < 0.001). Comparative assessment of scores for OS suggested better performance of CLL-IPI (C = 0.64, AIC = 740) followed by Barcelona-Brno (C = 0.61, AIC = 754) and MDACC score (C = 0.59, AIC = 759). Comparison of predictive value of prognostic scores for TTFT illustrated better performance of CLL-IPI (C = 0.72, AIC = 726) followed by Barcelona-Brno (C = 0.68, AIC = 743), modified GCLLSG (C = 0.66, AIC = 744), and O-CLL1 index (C = 0.55, AIC = 773). The results suggest better performance of CLL-IPI in terms of both OS and TTFT as compared to other available scores in our cohort.

Keywords: CLL-IPI; Chronic lymphocytic leukemia in India; Prognostic index; Time to first treatment.