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. 2018 Dec;108(12):1675-1681.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304673. Epub 2018 Oct 25.

Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis

Joshua A Barocas  1 , Laura F White  1 , Jianing Wang  1 , Alexander Y Walley  1 , Marc R LaRochelle  1 , Dana Bernson  1 , Thomas Land  1 , Jake R Morgan  1 , Jeffrey H Samet  1 , Benjamin P Linas  1
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Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis

Joshua A Barocas et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015.

Methods: We performed a multisample stratified capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence.

Results: The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11-25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015.

Conclusions: In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.

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