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. 2018 Dec;108(12):1652-1658.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304685. Epub 2018 Oct 25.

23-Year Trends in Life Expectancy in Good and Poor Physical and Cognitive Health at Age 65 Years in the Netherlands, 1993-2016

Dorly J H Deeg  1 , Hannie C Comijs  1 , Emiel O Hoogendijk  1 , Maaike van der Noordt  1 , Martijn Huisman  1
Affiliations

23-Year Trends in Life Expectancy in Good and Poor Physical and Cognitive Health at Age 65 Years in the Netherlands, 1993-2016

Dorly J H Deeg et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Dec.

Abstract

Objectives: To examine 23-year trends in both physically and cognitively healthy life expectancy from age 65 years in the Netherlands.

Methods: We used 8 waves between 1993 and 2016 from the nationally representative Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (12 948 observations). We calculated physically and cognitively healthy life expectancies by using the Sullivan life table method and tested prevalence trends over time by using generalized estimating equations.

Results: Total life expectancy at age 65 years rose from 14.7 to 18.7 years (men) and from 19.2 to 21.4 years (women). Life expectancy in poor physical health increased nonlinearly from 1.8 to 2.9 years for men; for women it fluctuated around 5.7 years. Meanwhile, life expectancy in good cognitive health increased linearly from 11.0 to 15.7 years (men) and from 13.4 to 18.0 years (women). The proportion of people with poor physical and poor cognitive health combined did not increase, averaging 5.9% (men) and 8.7% (women).

Conclusions: This multiwave study shows that a negative trend in physically healthy life expectancy is accompanied by a positive trend in cognitively healthy life expectancy.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Life Expectancy for Men Aged 65 Years in (a) Good, Fair, and Poor Physical Health and in (b) Good and Fair or Poor Cognitive Health: Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 1993–2016 Note. The years in good, fair, and poor health are stacked vertically so that for each calendar year they sum to the total life expectancy. Good physical health = no multimorbidity and no mild disability; fair physical health = multimorbidity, disability, or both; poor physical health = multimorbidity and severe disability; good cognitive health = Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) ≥ 26; fair or poor cognitive health = MMSE ≤ 25.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Life Expectancy for Women Aged 65 Years in (a) Good, Fair, and Poor Physical Health and in (b) Good and Fair or Poor Cognitive Health: Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 1993–2016 Note. The years in good, fair, and poor health are stacked vertically so that for each calendar year they sum to the total life expectancy. Good physical health = no multimorbidity and no mild disability; fair physical health = multimorbidity, disability, or both; poor physical health = multimorbidity and severe disability; good cognitive health = Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) ≥ 26; fair or poor cognitive health = MMSE ≤ 25.
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