Informing CONOPS and medical countermeasure deployment strategies after an improvised nuclear device detonation: the importance of delayed treatment efficacy data

Abstract

Purpose: In the wake of a nuclear detonation, individuals with acute radiation syndrome will be a significant source of morbidity and mortality. Mathematical modeling can compare response strategies developed for real-world chaotic conditions after a nuclear blast in order to identify optimal strategies for administering effective treatment to these individuals. To maximize responders' abilities to save lives it is critical to understand how treatment efficacy is impacted by real-world conditions and levels of supportive care. To illustrate the importance of these factors, we developed a mathematical model of cytokine administration 24 h after the blast with varying levels of supportive care described in the primary literature.Conclusion: The results highlight the proportionally higher life-saving benefit of administering cytokines to individuals with a moderate to high dose of radiation exposure, compared to those with a lower dose. However, the fidelity of mathematical models is dependent on the primary data informing them. We describe the data needed to fully explore the impact of timing, dosage, and fractional benefit of cytokines and supportive care treatment in non-optimal situations that could be seen after a nuclear detonation. Studies addressing these types of knowledge gaps are essential to evaluating the relative efficacy of countermeasures to refine existing plans and help develop new strategies and priorities.

Keywords: Acute radiation syndrome (ARS); atomic bomb effects; cytokines; modeling; models of radiation response.