Risk Factors, Patterns, and Outcomes of Late Recurrence After Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study From China

Abstract

Importance: Late recurrence (more than 2 years) after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is generally considered as a multicentric tumor or a de novo cancer.

Objective: To investigate the risk factors, patterns, and outcomes of late recurrence after curative liver resection for HCC.

Design, setting, and participants: This study was a multicenter retrospective analysis of patients who underwent curative liver resection for HCC at 6 hospitals in China from January 2001 to December 2015. Among 734 patients who were alive and free of recurrence at 2 years after resection, 303 patients developed late recurrence. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to February 2018.

Interventions: Liver resection for HCC.

Main outcomes and measures: Risk factors of late recurrence as well as patterns, treatments, and long-term outcomes of patients with late recurrence. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors of late recurrence.

Results: Of the included 734 patients, 652 (88.8%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 51.0 (10.3) years. At a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 78.0 (52.8-112.5) months, 303 patients (41.3%) developed late recurrence. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, cirrhosis, multiple tumors, satellite nodules, tumor size greater than 5 cm, and macroscopic and microscopic vascular invasion were independent risk factors of late recurrence. Of the 303 patients with late recurrence, 273 (90.1%) had only intrahepatic recurrence, 30 (9.9%) had both intrahepatic and extrahepatic recurrence, and none had only extrahepatic recurrence. Potentially curative treatments were given to 165 of 303 patients (54.5%) with late recurrence, which included reresection, transplant, and local ablation. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that regular surveillance for postoperative recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 0.470; 95% CI, 0.310-0.713; P = .001), cirrhosis (HR, 1.381; 95% CI, 1.049-1.854; P = .02), portal hypertension (HR, 2.424; 95% CI, 1.644-3.574; P < .001), Child-Pugh grade of B or C (HR, 1.376; 95% CI, 1.153-1.674; P < .001), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B (HR, 1.304; 95% CI, 1.007-1.708; P = .04) and stage C (HR, 2.037; 95% CI, 1.583-2.842; P < .001), and potentially curative treatment (HR, 0.443; 95% CI, 0.297-0.661; P < .001) were independent predictors of overall survival for patients with late recurrence.

Conclusions and relevance: Late recurrence after HCC resection was associated with sex, cirrhosis, and several aggressive tumor characteristics of the initial HCC. The patterns of late recurrence suggested surveillance for recurrence after 2 years of surgery should be targeted to the liver. Postoperative surveillance improved the chance of potentially curative treatments, with improved survival outcomes in patients with late recurrence.

Figure 1.. Overall Survival Curves of Patients With and Without Late Recurrence

Figure 2.. Overall Survival Curves of Patients With Late Recurrence Who Received Regular and Irregular Postoperative Surveillance