Incidence of Thyroid Cancer Among Children and Young Adults in Fukushima, Japan, Screened With 2 Rounds of Ultrasonography Within 5 Years of the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident

Abstract

Importance: Ultrasonographic (US) screening for thyroid cancer was performed in the Fukushima Health Management Survey after the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident. Clinical characteristics of thyroid cancers screened by US among children and young adults during the first 5 years after the accident were analyzed.

Objectives: To evaluate the number of detected thyroid cancers by age group within 5 years of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident and to compare the basic clinical characteristics and demographic patterns in first- and second-round examinations.

Design, setting, and participants: In this observational study, 324 301 individuals 18 years or younger at the time of accident were included. Patients received a cytologic diagnosis of malignant or suspected malignant thyroid cancer during the first (fiscal years 2011-2013) or second round (fiscal years 2014-2015) of screening. Number of detected cases of cancer was evaluated, correcting for the number of examinees by age group at the time of the accident and for the incidence of detected cancers according to age group at the time of the screening (age groups were divided into 3-year intervals). Results were compared using the age-specific incidence of unscreened cancers from a national cancer registry.

Main outcomes and measures: Clinical baseline characteristics of the patients and the age-specific number and incidence of thyroid cancers detected during the second round.

Results: Among 299 905 individuals screened in the first round (50.5% male; mean [SD] age at screening, 14.9 [2.6] years), malignant or suspected thyroid cancer was diagnosed in 116. Among 271 083 individuals screened in the second round (50.4% male; age at screening, 12.6 [3.2] years), malignant or suspected thyroid cancer was diagnosed in 71. The most common pathologic diagnosis in surgical cases was papillary thyroid cancer (149 of 152 [98.0%]). The distribution pattern by age group at the time of the accident, where the number of detected thyroid cancer cases was corrected by the number of examinees, increased with older age in both screening rounds. This demographic pattern was similar between the first and second examinations. The distribution pattern of the incidence rate by age group at the time of screening in the second round also increased with older age. The incidence rate detected by screening was 29 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 15 to 17 years, 48 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 18 to 20 years, and 64 cases per 100 000 person-years for those aged 21 to 22 years.

Conclusions and relevance: Large-scale mass US screening of young people resulted in the diagnosis of a number of thyroid cancers, with no major changes in overall characteristics within 5 years of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power station accident. These results suggest that US screening can identify many detectable cancers from a large pool of nonclinical and subclinical thyroid cancers among individuals of a relatively young age, in an age-dependent manner.

Figure 1.. Number of Detected or Suspected Thyroid Cancer Cases Adjusted for Number of Participants in Each Age Group at the Time of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

A, Number of cases detected per 100 000 examinees in the first round of screening. B, Number of cases detected per 100 000 examinees in the second round of screening. Numbers of cases increased with older age at the time of the accident.

Figure 2.. Incidence of Thyroid Cancer in the Second Round of Screening by Age Group at the Time of Screening

Incidence was expressed per 100 000 person-years by dividing the age groups at screening into 3-year intervals (age groups of ≤2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, 12-14, 15-17, 18-20, and 21-22 years).