Optimization of heart allocation: The transplant risk score

Abstract

The new French heart allocation system is designed to minimize waitlist mortality and extend the donor pool without a detrimental effect on posttransplant survival. This study was designed to construct a 1-year posttransplant graft-loss risk score incorporating recipient and donor characteristics. The study included all adult first single-organ recipients transplanted between 2010 and 2014 (N = 1776). This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables with 1-year graft loss was determined with a mixed Cox model with center as random effect. The predictors were used to generate a transplant-risk score (TRS). Donor-recipient matching was assessed using 2 separate recipient- and donor-risk scores. Factors associated with 1-year graft loss were recipient age >50 years, valvular cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease, previous cardiac surgery, diabetes, mechanical ventilation, glomerular filtration rate and bilirubin, donor age >55 years, and donor sex: female. The C-index of the final model was 0.70. Correlation between observed and predicted graft loss rate was excellent for the overall cohort (r = 0.90). Hearts from high-risk donors transplanted to low-risk recipients had similar survival as those from low-risk donors. The TRS provides an accurate prediction of 1-year graft-loss risk and allows optimal donor-recipient matching.

Keywords: clinical research/practice; graft survival; health services and outcomes research; heart transplantation/cardiology; organ allocation; organ procurement and allocation; risk assessment/risk stratification.