Recent trends in US mortality in early and middle adulthood: racial/ethnic disparities in inter-cohort patterns

Abstract

Background: A striking increase in the all-cause mortality of US middle-aged non-Hispanic Whites in the past two decades has been documented by previous studies. The inter-cohort patterns in US mortality, as well as their racial/ethnic disparities, are still unclear.

Methods: Using official mortality data, we study US annual mortality rates for ages 25-54 from 1990 to 2016 by gender and race/ethnicity. We conduct an age-period-cohort analysis to disentangle the period and cohort forces driving the absolute changes in mortality across cohorts. Nine leading causes of death are also explored to explain the inter-cohort mortality patterns and their racial/ethnic disparities.

Results: We find cohort-specific elevated mortality trends for gender- and race/ethnicity-specific populations. For non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics, Baby Boomers have increased mortality trends compared with other cohorts. For non-Hispanic White females, it is late-Gen Xers and early-Gen Yers for whom the mortality trends are higher than other cohorts. For non-Hispanic White males, the elevated mortality pattern is found for Baby Boomers, late-Gen Xers, and early-Gen Yers. The mortality pattern among Baby Boomers is at least partially driven by mortality related to drug poisoning, suicide, external causes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HIV/AIDS for all race and gender groups affected. The elevated mortality patterns among late-Gen Xers and early-Gen Yers are at least partially driven by mortality related to drug poisonings and alcohol-related diseases for non-Hispanic Whites. Differential patterns of drug poisoning-related mortality play an important role in the racial/ethnic disparities in these mortality patterns.

Conclusions: We find substantial racial/ethnic disparities in inter-cohort mortality patterns. Our findings also point to the unique challenges faced by younger generations.

Keywords: Adult mortality; cohort analysis; gender disparities; racial/ethnic disparities.

Figure 1.

Inter-cohort patterns of age-specific death rates by gender and race/ethnicity for ages 25–54.

Figure 2.

Estimated period effect coefficients for all-cause mortality by gender and race/ethnicity for age groups 25–34, 35–44 and 45–54, with 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 3.

Estimated cohort effect coefficients for all-cause mortality by gender and race/ethnicity for age groups 25–34, 35–44 and 45–54, with 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 4.

Estimated cohort effect coefficients for Baby Boomers by gender and cause, with 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 5.

Estimated cohort effect coefficients for Gen Xers by race/ethnicity, gender and cause, with 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 6.

Estimated cohort effect coefficients for drug poisoning mortality by race/ethnicity and gender, with 95% confidence intervals.