Lifespan Dispersion in Times of Life Expectancy Fluctuation: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced considerable instability in mortality since the 1960s. Long periods of stagnating life expectancy were followed by rapid increases in life expectancy and, in some cases, even more rapid declines, before more recent periods of improvement. These trends have been well documented, but to date, no study has comprehensively explored trends in lifespan variation. We improved such analyses by incorporating life disparity as a health indicator alongside life expectancy, examining trends since the 1960s for 12 countries from the region. Generally, life disparity was high and fluctuated strongly over the period. For nearly 30 of these years, life expectancy and life disparity varied independently of each other, largely because mortality trends ran in opposite directions over different ages. Furthermore, we quantified the impact of large classes of diseases on life disparity trends since 1994 using a newly harmonized cause-of-death time series for eight countries in the region. Mortality patterns in CEE countries were heterogeneous and ran counter to the common patterns observed in most developed countries. They contribute to the discussion about life expectancy disparity by showing that expansion/compression levels do not necessarily mean lower/higher life expectancy or mortality deterioration/improvements.

Keywords: Alcohol consumption; Causes of death; Decomposition techniques; Health inequalities; Mortality.

Fig. 1

Male mortality surface showing rates of mortality improvements. The regular white areas indicate no data available. Source: Own calculations based on Human Mortality Database (2016) data

Fig. 2

Trends in male life expectancy (e₀) and lifespan disparity (e^†) for 12 Eastern European countries, 1960–2014. Source: Own calculations based on Human Mortality Database (2016) data

Fig. 3

Absolute and relative yearly changes in life expectancy and lifespan disparity, 1960–2010. Data for Slovenia begin in 1983. The black dots are related to changes experienced in Russia. The percentages correspond to the total changes occurred during each period. Source: Own calculations based on Human Mortality Database (2016) data

Fig. 4

Males’ age-specific contributions to the change in lifespan disparity e^† by periods. Data for Slovenia begin in 1983. Source: Own calculations based on Human Mortality Database (2016) data

Fig. 5

Cause specific contributions to the change in male lifespan disparity e^†, 1994–2000. Data for Poland end in 2009. Source: Own calculations based on Human Cause-of-Death Database (2016) data

Fig. 6

Cause-specific contributions to the change in male lifespan disparity e^†, 2000–2010. Data for Poland end in 2009. Source: Own calculations based on Human Cause-of-Death Database (2016) data