Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Senthold Asseng¹, Pierre Martre², Andrea Maiorano², Reimund P Rötter^{3

4}, Garry J O'Leary⁵, Glenn J Fitzgerald^{6

7}, Christine Girousse⁸, Rosella Motzo⁹, Francesco Giunta⁹, M Ali Babar¹⁰, Matthew P Reynolds¹¹, Ahmed M S Kheir¹², Peter J Thorburn¹³, Katharina Waha¹³, Alex C Ruane¹⁴, Pramod K Aggarwal¹⁵, Mukhtar Ahmed^{16

17}, Juraj Balkovič^{18

19}, Bruno Basso^{20

21}, Christian Biernath²², Marco Bindi²³, Davide Cammarano²⁴, Andrew J Challinor^{25

26}, Giacomo De Sanctis²⁷, Benjamin Dumont²⁸, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei^{29

30}, Elias Fereres³¹, Roberto Ferrise²³, Margarita Garcia-Vila³¹, Sebastian Gayler³², Yujing Gao¹, Heidi Horan¹³, Gerrit Hoogenboom^{1

33}, R César Izaurralde^{34

35}, Mohamed Jabloun³⁶, Curtis D Jones³⁴, Belay T Kassie¹, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum³⁷, Christian Klein²², Ann-Kristin Koehler²⁵, Bing Liu^{1

38}, Sara Minoli³⁹, Manuel Montesino San Martin⁴⁰, Christoph Müller³⁹, Soora Naresh Kumar⁴¹, Claas Nendel³⁷, Jørgen Eivind Olesen³⁶, Taru Palosuo⁴², John R Porter^{40

43

42}, Eckart Priesack²², Dominique Ripoche⁴⁴, Mikhail A Semenov⁴⁵, Claudio Stöckle¹⁶, Pierre Stratonovitch⁴⁵, Thilo Streck³², Iwan Supit⁴⁶, Fulu Tao^{47

48}, Marijn Van der Velde⁴⁹, Daniel Wallach⁵⁰, Enli Wang⁵¹, Heidi Webber^{29

37}, Joost Wolf⁵², Liujun Xiao³⁸, Zhao Zhang⁵³, Zhigan Zhao^{51

54}, Yan Zhu³⁸, Frank Ewert^{29

37}

Affiliations

¹ Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
² LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France.
³ Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
⁴ Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
⁵ Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia.
⁶ Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia.
⁷ Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia.
⁸ UMR GDEC, INRA, Université Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
⁹ Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.
¹⁰ World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
¹¹ CIMMYT Int, Mexico D.F, Mexico.
¹² Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
¹³ CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
¹⁴ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York.
¹⁵ CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India.
¹⁶ Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington.
¹⁷ Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
¹⁸ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
¹⁹ Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia.
²⁰ Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
²¹ W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
²² Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
²³ Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
²⁴ James Hutton Institute, Dundee, Scotland, UK.
²⁵ Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
²⁶ Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia.
²⁷ GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
²⁸ Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium.
²⁹ Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
³⁰ Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
³¹ IAS-CSIC, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain.
³² Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.
³³ Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
³⁴ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.
³⁵ Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas.
³⁶ Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark.
³⁷ Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany.
³⁸ National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
³⁹ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
⁴⁰ Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark.
⁴¹ Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India.
⁴² Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
⁴³ Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand.
⁴⁴ US AgroClim, INRA, Paris, France.
⁴⁵ Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
⁴⁶ Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
⁴⁷ Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland.
⁴⁸ Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.
⁴⁹ Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
⁵⁰ INRA UMR AGIR, Castanet-Tolosan, France.
⁵¹ CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁵² Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
⁵³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁵⁴ Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.

PMID: 30549200
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14481

Free article

Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Senthold Asseng et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2019 Jan.

Free article

. 2019 Jan;25(1):155-173.

doi: 10.1111/gcb.14481. Epub 2018 Nov 22.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
² LEPSE, Université Montpellier INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, Montpellier, France.
³ Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
⁴ Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
⁵ Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia.
⁶ Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Agriculture Victoria Research, Horsham, Victoria, Australia.
⁷ Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, Australia.
⁸ UMR GDEC, INRA, Université Clermont Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France.
⁹ Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Sassari, Italy.
¹⁰ World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
¹¹ CIMMYT Int, Mexico D.F, Mexico.
¹² Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt.
¹³ CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
¹⁴ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York.
¹⁵ CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA-CIMMYT, New Delhi, India.
¹⁶ Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington.
¹⁷ Department of Agronomy, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.
¹⁸ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
¹⁹ Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia.
²⁰ Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
²¹ W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan.
²² Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
²³ Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), University of Florence, Florence, Italy.
²⁴ James Hutton Institute, Dundee, Scotland, UK.
²⁵ Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
²⁶ Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia.
²⁷ GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
²⁸ Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liege, Gembloux, Belgium.
²⁹ Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
³⁰ Department of Crop Sciences, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
³¹ IAS-CSIC, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain.
³² Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.
³³ Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida.
³⁴ Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland.
³⁵ Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University, Temple, Texas.
³⁶ Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Tjele, Denmark.
³⁷ Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany.
³⁸ National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
³⁹ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
⁴⁰ Plant & Environment Sciences, University Copenhagen, Taastrup, Denmark.
⁴¹ Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA, New Delhi, India.
⁴² Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CIHEAM-IAMM, CIRAD, University Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
⁴³ Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand.
⁴⁴ US AgroClim, INRA, Paris, France.
⁴⁵ Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, UK.
⁴⁶ Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
⁴⁷ Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland.
⁴⁸ Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China.
⁴⁹ Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy.
⁵⁰ INRA UMR AGIR, Castanet-Tolosan, France.
⁵¹ CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁵² Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
⁵³ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁵⁴ Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China.

PMID: 30549200
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14481

Abstract

Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO₂ . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO₂ and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.

Keywords: climate change adaptation; climate change impact; food security; grain protein; wheat.

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Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

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Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

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