A Predictive Scoring Model for Short-Term Local Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Abstract

Objective: To predict the early identification of recurrence based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) patients.

Methods: The clinical and MRI data of 215 patients with local recurrent NPC were retrospectively reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to distinguish the independent risk factors for the short-term (less than 24 months) local recurrence of NPC. The predictive score model was based on the regression coefficients of significant independent variables.

Results: Residual disease in the nasopharyngeal cavity (NC), masticator space invasion (MSI), skull base bone erosion (SBBE), and MRI-detected cranial nerve invasion (MDCNI) were all significant independent risk factors for the short-term recurrence of NPC (p < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the total score had a maximal AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.897, with a cutoff point of 10.50. The sensitivity and specificity were 79.4% and 80.5%, respectively.

Conclusion: Residual lesions in NC, MSI, SBBE, and MDCNI are independent risk factors in predicting the short-term recurrence of NPC. The authors' findings suggest that patients with a score of more than 10.50 points should be hypervigilant regarding the possibility of short-term recurrence.

Keywords: logistic regression analysis; magnetic resonance imaging; nasopharyngeal carcinoma; scoring model; short-term recurrence.