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. 2019 Jan 2;10(1):8.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-07894-4.

Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

S W D Turner  1 , N Voisin  2   3 , J Fazio  4 , D Hua  4 , M Jourabchi  4
Affiliations

Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

S W D Turner et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Power system reliability is sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demand and water availability, yet the combined effect of these impacts is rarely evaluated. Here we show that combined climate change impacts on loads and hydropower generation may have a transformative effect on the nature and seasonality of power shortfall risk in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Under climate change, potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature. A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, while summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydropower dispatch are analyzed in isolation-highlighting an important role of compound events.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Power plants by resource type in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. *Other comprises petroleum, solar, geothermal, and energy storage (pumped storage  hydropower and battery). **Conservation is measured in MWa (i.e., annual average generation), not MW (nameplate capacity)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Power system adequacy with 2035 infrastructure. Results are given for existing and carbon risk policy scenarios. Metrics are loss of load probability (LOLP), average event duration (AED), and average maximum shortfall (AMS). Uncertainty distributions are derived for each case using a bootstrap with 1000 repetitions. Boxplots follow the Tukey convention, with five summary statistics (median, 25th and 75th percentiles, 1.5* interquartile range) and all outlier points
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Power shortfall events in 2035. Each point represents a simulated shortfall event within either winter or summer from 6000 one-year simulations. Number of points indicates frequency of occurrence, whilst size and color give duration and maximum curtailment, respectively. Points are positioned randomly inside each box
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Power shortfall events with isolated and combined impacts. Results are given for summer 2035 for existing policy and carbon risk policy cases. Each point represents a simulated shortfall event out of 6000 simulations. Number of points indicates frequency of occurrence, whilst size and color give duration and maximum curtailment, respectively. Points are positioned randomly inside each box
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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