Frailty as a Predictor of All-Cause Mortality Among Older Nursing Home Residents: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract

Objectives: We performed a meta-analysis based on prospective cohort studies to synthesize the pooled risk effect and to determine whether frailty is a predictor of all-cause mortality.

Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Setting: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched in October 2018. A random effects model was applied to combine the results according to the heterogeneity of the included studies.

Participants: Older nursing home residents.

Measurements: Mortality risk due to frailty.

Results: Fourteen studies (9076 participants) were included in this meta-analysis. Pooled results demonstrated that nursing home residents with frailty were at an increased risk of mortality [pooled hazards ratio (HR) = 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57, 2.25, I² = 47.8%, P < .001] compared to those without frailty. Results of subgroup analyses showed that frailty was significantly associated with the risk of mortality among older nursing home residents when using FRAIL-NH (pooled HR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.60-2.77, P < .001) and Frailty Index (pooled HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.40-2.18, P < .001) to define frail people, whereas when using the diagnosis criteria of CSHA-CFS for frailty, the pooled HR was 2.82 (95% CI = 0.79-10.10, P = .111). In addition, the subgroup analysis for length of follow-up showed that studies with a follow-up period of 1 year or more (pooled HR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.52, 2.21, P < .001) reported a significantly higher rate of mortality among individuals with frailty, compared to those without frailty. Similar results were also found in studies with a follow-up period of less than 1 year (pooled HR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.43, 5.00, P = .002).

Conclusions and implications: Frailty is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in older nursing home residents. Therefore, there is an urgent need to screen for frailty in nursing home residents and carry out appropriate multidisciplinary intervention strategies to prevent poor outcomes and reduce the rate of mortality among older nursing home residents.

Keywords: Frailty; meta-analysis; mortality; nursing home residents; older people.