The prognostic predictors of six-month mortality for residents with advanced dementia in long-term care facilities in Taiwan: A prospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Although hospice or palliative care for patients with advanced dementia has been implemented for more than 30 years, few studies have investigated the prognostic predictors of 6-month mortality in these patients. Prognostication has been a major obstacle, and 6-month prognostic predictors for patients with advanced dementia are still considered elusive.

Objectives: To better understand the dying trajectories of patients with advanced dementia, we performed a longitudinal prospective cohort study to investigate the predictors of 6-month mortality for residents with advanced dementia in long-term care facilities in Taiwan.

Design: Prospective cohort study.

Setting: This study took place in 32 long-term care facilities selected from northern, central, and southern Taiwan.

Participants: The study included 320 residents with advanced dementia.

Measurements: Measurements were obtained after determining study eligibility; the participants underwent follow-up assessments once every 3 months for 6 months or died during follow-up. The assessments included demographic characteristics, health and medical status characteristics, and death-related information. The Kaplan-Meier survival function estimation and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to estimate the survival rate and predict the prognostic factors.

Results: Baseline data from 320 residents with advanced dementia in long-term care facilities were obtained. The mean age was 82.7 years and 61.6% were female. The 6-month survival rate was 78.1%. The major cause of death was multiple organ failure related to pneumonia. The 6-month prognostic predictors were pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.56; 95% confidence interval, 2.46-12.6; p-value < .001), reduction in nutrient intake >25% (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.05; 95% confidence interval, 2.37-10.8; p-value < .001), oxygen dependency (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.51-4.39; p-value = .001), treatment for electrolyte abnormalities (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.14; p-value = .025), severe pressure injuries (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-3.67; p-value = .018), and long-term indwelling urinary catheters (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.96; p-value = .021).

Conclusion: Our results identified six prognostic predictors of 6-month mortality among residents with advanced dementia in Taiwan. These predictors may serve as risk assessment indicators for nursing staff who provide clinical care and can enable the identification of patients in recognized terminal decline, thereby allowing access to hospice palliative services.

Keywords: 6-Month mortality; Advanced dementia; Prognostic predictors; Prognostication.