Determining predictors of sepsis at triage among children under 5 years of age in resource-limited settings: A modified Delphi process

Abstract

Sepsis is a life-threatening dysfunction of the immune system leading to multiorgan failure that is precipitated by infectious diseases and is a leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age. It is necessary to be able to identify a sick child at risk of developing sepsis at the earliest point of presentation to a healthcare facility so that appropriate care can be provided as soon as possible. Our study objective was to generate a list of consensus-driven predictor variables for the derivation of a prediction model that will be incorporated into a mobile device and operated by low-skilled healthcare workers at triage. By conducting a systematic literature review and examination of global guideline documents, a list of 72 initial candidate predictor variables was generated. A two-round modified Delphi process involving 26 experts from both resource-rich and resource-limited settings, who were also encouraged to suggest new variables, yielded a final list of 45 predictor variables after evaluating each variable based on three domains: predictive potential, measurement reliability, and level of training and resources required. The final list of predictor variables will be used to collect data and contribute to the derivation of a prediction model.

Fig 1. The trends of the sum of responses to each domain for all 72 variables evaluated in Round 1.

Fig 2. The trends of the sum of responses to each domain for all 16 variables evaluated in Round 2.