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. 2019 Sep 1;68(5):797-813.
doi: 10.1093/sysbio/syz002.

Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

Nicolas Chazot  1   2   3 , Niklas Wahlberg  1 , André Victor Lucci Freitas  4 , Charles Mitter  5 , Conrad Labandeira  5   6   7   8 , Jae-Cheon Sohn  9 , Ranjit Kumar Sahoo  10 , Noemy Seraphim  11 , Rienk de Jong  12 , Maria Heikkilä  13
Affiliations

Priors and Posteriors in Bayesian Timing of Divergence Analyses: The Age of Butterflies Revisited

Nicolas Chazot et al. Syst Biol. .

Abstract

The need for robust estimates of times of divergence is essential for downstream analyses, yet assessing this robustness is still rare. We generated a time-calibrated genus-level phylogeny of butterflies (Papilionoidea), including 994 taxa, up to 10 gene fragments and an unprecedented set of 12 fossils and 10 host-plant node calibration points. We compared marginal priors and posterior distributions to assess the relative importance of the former on the latter. This approach revealed a strong influence of the set of priors on the root age but for most calibrated nodes posterior distributions shifted from the marginal prior, indicating significant information in the molecular data set. Using a very conservative approach we estimated an origin of butterflies at 107.6 Ma, approximately equivalent to the latest Early Cretaceous, with a credibility interval ranging from 89.5 Ma (mid Late Cretaceous) to 129.5 Ma (mid Early Cretaceous). In addition, we tested the effects of changing fossil calibration priors, tree prior, different sets of calibrations and different sampling fractions but our estimate remained robust to these alternative assumptions. With 994 genera, this tree provides a comprehensive source of secondary calibrations for studies on butterflies.

Keywords: Butterflies; Early Cretaceous; Papilionoidea; fossils; host plants; marginal prior; time-calibration.

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Figures

<sc>Figure</sc> 1.
Figure 1.
Time-calibrated tree obtained from the core analysis. Only the relationships and age estimates among the subfamilies of Papilionoidea are shown here. The complete tree, including median node ages, credibility intervals, and the positions of fossil and host-plant calibration points are shown in Supplementary Material S12 available on Dryad. Age estimates are indicated at the nodes (Ma). Node bars represent the 95% credibility intervals.
<sc>Figure</sc> 2.
Figure 2.
Comparison of node age estimates between the core analysis and the seven alternative analyses for a) the root of Papilionoidea, the crown age of the family Papilionidae, Hedylidae, Hesperiidae and b) the crown age of the family Pieridae, Lycaenidae, Riodinidae, Nymphalidae. Mode, median, and 95% credibility interval are presented.
<sc>Figure</sc> 3.
Figure 3.
Marginal prior (grey) and posterior distributions (orange) for the nodes calibrated in the core analysis. Blue dashed lines represent minimum boundaries; green dashed lines represent maximum boundaries.
<sc>Figure</sc> 4.
Figure 4.
Marginal prior and posterior distributions for the root age in the core analysis using either a) alternative host-plant ages or b) alternative subsets of fossil calibrations.
<sc>Figure</sc> 5.
Figure 5.
Comparison of node age estimates for the root of Papilionoidea and the seven families (a and b) between this study (core analysis) and estimates from previous studies. Mode and 95% CI for the core analysis are presented. For the other studies the values reported in the original study are used.
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References

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