Modelling potential habitat for snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in Ladakh, India

Abstract

The snow leopard Panthera uncia is an elusive species inhabiting some of the most remote and inaccessible tracts of Central and South Asia. It is difficult to determine its distribution and density pattern, which are crucial for developing conservation strategies. Several techniques for species detection combining camera traps with remote sensing and geographic information systems have been developed to model the habitat of such cryptic and low-density species in challenging terrains. Utilising presence-only data from camera traps and direct observations, alongside six environmental variables (elevation, aspect, ruggedness, distance to water, land cover, and prey habitat suitability), we assessed snow leopard habitat suitability across Ladakh in northern India. This is the first study to model snow leopard distribution both in India and utilising direct observation data. Results suggested that elevation and ruggedness are the two most influential environmental variables for snow leopard habitat suitability, with highly suitable habitat having an elevation range of 2,800 m to 4,600 m and ruggedness of 450 m to 1,800 m. Our habitat suitability map estimated approximately 12% of Ladakh's geographical area (c. 90,000 km2) as highly suitable and 18% as medium suitability. We found that 62.5% of recorded livestock depredation along with over half of all livestock corrals (54%) and homestays (58%) occurred within highly suitable snow leopard habitat. Our habitat suitability model can be used to assist in allocation of conservation resources by targeting construction of livestock corrals to areas of high habitat suitability and promoting ecotourism programs in villages in highly suitable snow leopard habitat.

Fig 1. Location of Ladakh in northern India with Pakistan to the northwest and China to the northeast.

Fig 2. Spatial visualisation of snow leopard habitat suitability model and key environmental variables in Ladakh.

(a) Distribution of presence locations (black points; n = 83) and villages across high (red points; n = 131), medium (yellow points; n = 104) and low (white points; n = 90) snow leopard habitat suitability. (b) Snow leopard habitat suitability map. (c) Elevation categorised into below optimal (black; 0 m– 2,800 m), optimal (grey; 2,800 m– 4,600 m), and above optimal (white; 4,600 m– 7,200 m). (d) Ruggedness categorised into below optimal (black; 0 m– 450 m), optimal (450 m– 1,800 m), and above optimal (white; 1,800 m– 2,600 m).