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. 2019 Jan 29;16(3):376.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph16030376.

Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

Tao Liu  1 , Zhoupeng Ren  2 , Yonghui Zhang  3 , Baixiang Feng  4 , Hualiang Lin  5 , Jianpeng Xiao  6 , Weilin Zeng  7 , Xing Li  8 , Zhihao Li  9 , Shannon Rutherford  10 , Yanjun Xu  11 , Shao Lin  12 , Philip C Nasca  13 , Yaodong Du  14 , Jinfeng Wang  15 , Cunrui Huang  16 , Peng Jia  17   18 , Wenjun Ma  19
Affiliations

Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China

Tao Liu et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

(1) Background: Although the health effects of future climate change have been examined in previous studies, few have considered additive impacts of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation. We aimed to quantify the future heat-related years of life lost (YLLs) under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios and global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs), and further to examine relative contributions of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation on these projections. (2) Methods: We used downscaled and bias-corrected projections of daily temperature from 27 GCMs under RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios to quantify the potential annual heat-related YLLs in Guangzhou, China in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, compared to those in the 1980s as a baseline. We also explored the modification effects of a range of population expansion, ageing, and adaptation scenarios on the heat-related YLLs. (3) Results: Global warming, particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario, would lead to a substantial increase in the heat-related YLLs in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s for the majority of the GCMs. For the total population, the annual heat-related YLLs under the RCP8.5 in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s were 2.2, 7.0, and 11.4 thousand, respectively. The heat effects would be significantly exacerbated by rapid population expansion and ageing. However, substantial heat-related YLLs could be counteracted by the increased adaptation (75% for the total population and 20% for the elderly). (4) Conclusions: The rapid population expansion and ageing coinciding with climate change may present an important health challenge in China, which, however, could be partially counteracted by the increased adaptation of individuals.

Keywords: adaptation; ageing; climate change; population expansion; population health; years of life lost.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Annual temperature in the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s under different climatic models and RCP scenarios. Gray grids mean that the data were not available.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Relationships between daily mean temperature and YLLs in the total population and the elderly. All the effects of temperature on YLLs were adjusted for secular trend, wind speed, day of week, relative humidity, SO2, NO2, and PM10.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Annual heat-related YLLs in the total population and the elderly under different climatic scenarios. Note: The heat-related YLLs in the future have been subtracted by the heat-related YLLs in the 1980s. We assumed that the population size and their adaptation in the 21st century will remain constant at the 2010 level. Gray grids mean that the data were not available.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Impacts of population expansion and adaptation on the annual heat-related YLLs in the future. Constant adaptation: People’s adaptation to high temperature will remain constant at the 2010 level. Adaptation S1: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 8.92% per decade. Adaptation S2: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 4.60% per decade. Adaptation S3: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 0.2 °C per decade. C: The population size will remain constant at the 2010 level. L: Low population expansion scenario. M: Medium population expansion scenario. H: High population expansion scenario. The three rows of panel show the effects of population expansion and adaptation on the heat-related YLLs in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. The heat-related YLLs in the future have been subtracted by the heat-related YLLs in the 1980s.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Impacts of aging and adaptation on the annual heat-related YLLs in the future. Constant adaptation: People’s adaptation to high temperature will remain constant at the 2010 level. Adaptation S1: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 8.92% per decade. Adaptation S2: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 4.60% per decade. Adaptation S3: People’s adaptation to high temperature will increase by 0.1 °C per decade. C: The population size will remain constant at the 2010 level. L: Low population expansion scenario. M: Medium population expansion scenario. H: High population expansion scenario. The three rows of panel show the effects of aging and adaptation on the heat-related YLLs in 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s, respectively. The heat-related YLLs in the future have been subtracted by the heat-related YLLs in the 1980s.
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