Spatiotemporal evolution of global population ageing from 1960 to 2017

Abstract

Background: Population ageing is an increasingly severe global issue. And this has been posing challenges for public health policies and medical resource allocation There are various features of population ageing in different regions worldwide.

Methods: All data were obtained from the health data of World Bank Open Data. Quantile linear regression was used to subtly measure the common variation tendency and strength of the global ageing rate and ageing population. The Bayesian space-time hierarchy model (BSTHM) was employed to assess the detailed spatial temporal evolution of ageing rate and ageing population in global 195 countries and regions.

Results: Annual growth of the ageing (65 and above) rate occurred on six continents: Europe (0.1532%), Oceania (0.0873%), Asia (0.0834%), South America (0.0723%), North America (0.0673%) and Africa (0.0069%). The coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate increased from 0.54 in 1960 to 0.69 in 2017. The global ageing rate and ageing population increased over this period, correlating positively with their quantiles. Most countries (37/39) in Europe belong to the top level with regard to the ageing rate, including the countries with the greatest degree of ageing-Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium and the UK-whose spatial relative risks of ageing are 3.180 (3.113-3.214), 3.071 (3.018-3.122), 2.951 (2.903-3.001), 2.932 (2.880-2.984) and 2.917 (2.869-2.967), respectively. Worldwide, 44 low ageing areas which were distributed mainly in Africa (26 areas) and Asia (15 areas) experienced a decreasing trend of ageing rates. The local trends of ageing population in the 195 areas increased.

Conclusions: The differentiation of global population ageing is becoming increasingly serious. Globally, all 195 areas showed an increasing local ageing trend in absolute terms, although there were 44 low-ageing areas that experienced a decreasing local trend of ageing rate. The statistical results may provide some baseline reference for developing public health policies in various countries or regions, especially in less-developed areas.

Keywords: Bayesian statistics; Global population ageing; Spatiotemporal evolution.

Fig. 1

Spatial distribution of the global ageing rate from 1960 to 2017 (map generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors)

Fig. 2

Global ageing rate trends for the continents of Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Oceania

Fig. 3

Boxplot of the global ageing rate for 195 countries and regions from 1960 to 2017

Fig. 4

Trend of the coefficient of variation of the global ageing rate from 1960 to 2017

Fig. 5

Spatial distribution of the global ageing population in 195 countries and regions from 1960 to 2017 (map generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors)

Fig. 6

Boxplot of the global ageing population in 195 countries and regions from 1960 to 2017

Fig. 7

Quantile regression lines of the ageing rates in 195 countries and global regions from 1960 to 2017 with 9 quantiles—0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40, 0.50 (median), 0.60, 0.70, 0.80 and 0.90—and the corresponding scatters

Fig. 8

Quantile regression lines of the ageing population rates in 195 countries and global regions from 1960 to 2017 with 9 quantiles—0.10, 0.20, 0.30, 0.40, 0.50 (median), 0.60, 0.70, 0.80 and 0.90—and the corresponding scatters

Fig. 9

The overall spatial relative risks of the global ageing rate (the posterior median estimate of $exp\left({\mathrm{s}}_{\mathrm{i}}^{\left(\mathrm{r}\right)}\right)$ of the BSTHM) (map generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors)

Fig. 10

The common spatial relative risks of the global ageing population (the posterior median estimate of $exp\left({\mathrm{s}}_{\mathrm{i}}^{\left(\mathrm{p}\right)}\right)$ of the BSTHM) (map generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors)

Fig. 11

Local average annually increasing 496 or decreasing rate of ageing rate (the posterior median of $exp\left({\beta }_0^{\left(r\right)}+{\beta }_{1i}^{\left(r\right)}\right)$ in the BSTHM) in the 195 countries and regions from 1960 to 2017 (map generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors)

Fig. 12

Local average annually increasing ageing population (the posterior median of $exp\left({\beta }_0^{\left(p\right)}+{\beta }_{1i}^{\left(p\right)}\right)$ in the BSTHM) in the 195 countries and regions from 1960 to 2017 (map 501 generated with ArcGIS 10.3 by authors).