Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2018 Dec;30(6):571-579.
doi: 10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2018.06.01.

Liver cancer incidence and mortality in China: Temporal trends and projections to 2030

Rongshou Zheng  1 , Chunfeng Qu  2 , Siwei Zhang  1 , Hongmei Zeng  1 , Kexin Sun  1 , Xiuying Gu  3 , Changfa Xia  1 , Zhixun Yang  1 , He Li  1 , Wenqiang Wei  1 , Wanqing Chen  4 , Jie He  5
Affiliations

Liver cancer incidence and mortality in China: Temporal trends and projections to 2030

Rongshou Zheng et al. Chin J Cancer Res. 2018 Dec.

Abstract

Objective: Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers and major cause of cancer deaths in China, which accounts for over 50% of new cases and deaths worldwide. The systematic liver cancer statistics including of projection through 2030 could provide valuable information for prevention and control strategies in China, and experience for other countries.

Methods: The burden of liver cancer in China in 2014 was estimated using 339 cancer registries' data selected from Chinese National Cancer Center (NCC). Incident cases of 22 cancer registries were applied for temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. The burden of liver cancer through 2030 was projected using age-period-cohort model.

Results: About 364,800 new cases of liver cancer (268,900 males and 95,900 females) occurred in China, and about 318,800 liver cancer deaths (233,500 males and 85,300 females) in 2014. Western regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. Incidence and mortality rates decreased by about 2.3% and 2.6% per year during the period of 2000-2014, respectively, and would decrease by more than 44% between 2014 and 2030 in China. The young generation, particularly for those aged under 40 years, showed a faster down trend.

Conclusions: Based on the analysis, incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030, but the burden of liver cancer is still serious in China, especially in rural and western areas. Most cases of liver cancer in China can be prevented through vaccination and more prevention efforts should be focused on high risk groups.

Keywords: China; Liver cancer burden; cancer registry; prediction; temporal trends.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

S1
S1
Distribution of 339 selected cancer registries in China.
S2
S2
Liver cancer incidence and mortality rates with different birth cohorts by age groups in China. (A) Male incidence; (B) Female incidence; (C) Urban incidence; (D) Rural incidence; (E) Male mortality; (F) Female mortality; (G) Urban mortality; (H) Rural mortality.
1
1
Trends for age-specific incidence and mortality rates during 2000−2014 and predicted from 2015 to 2030, and the total prevented liver cancer cases and avoided deaths between the top rate in 2014 and 2030 in China. (A) Male incidence; (B) Female incidence; (C) Male mortality; (D) Female mortality; (E) Male cases; (F) Female cases; (G) Male deaths; (H) Female deaths. Right panel: black line represents predicted cancer cases or deaths from 2014 to 2030; red line represents estimated numbers of total liver cancer cases or deaths by applying 2014 age-specific incidence or mortality rate.
2
2
Contribution of ever-smoking, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol, excess body weight and other causes on liver cancer incidence both sexes and by areas in China.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, et al Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin. 2018;68:394–424. doi: 10.3322/caac.21492. [Bray F, Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, et al. Global cancer statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin 2018;68:394-424] - DOI - PubMed
    1. Sia D, Villanueva A, Friedman SL, et al Liver cancer cell of origin, molecular class, and effects on patient prognosis. Gastroenterology. 2017;152:745–61. doi: 10.1053/j.gastro.2016.11.048. [Sia D, Villanueva A, Friedman SL, et al. Liver cancer cell of origin, molecular class, and effects on patient prognosis. Gastroenterology 2017;152:745-61] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Massarweh NN, El-Serag HB Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Cancer Control. 2017;24:1073274817729245. doi: 10.1177/1073274817729245. [Massarweh NN, El-Serag HB. Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Cancer Control 2017;24:1073274817729245] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. de Martel C, Maucort-Boulch D, Plummer M, et al World-wide relative contribution of hepatitis B and C viruses in hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatology. 2015;62:1190–200. doi: 10.1002/hep.27969. [de Martel C, Maucort-Boulch D, Plummer M, et al. World-wide relative contribution of hepatitis B and C viruses in hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatology 2015;62:1190-200] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Poon D, Anderson BO, Chen LT, et al Management of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asia: consensus statement from the Asian Oncology Summit 2009. Lancet Oncol. 2009;10:1111–8. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(09)70241-4. [Poon D, Anderson BO, Chen LT, et al. Management of hepatocellular carcinoma in Asia: consensus statement from the Asian Oncology Summit 2009. Lancet Oncol 2009;10:1111-8] - DOI - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources