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. 2019 Jan 31;19(1):140.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-6445-6.

Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in Kerala, India: results from a 10-year prospective cohort

Gadadharan Vijayakumar  1 , Sreeja Manghat  1 , Revathi Vijayakumar  1 , Leena Simon  1 , Liss Maria Scaria  1 , Aswathi Vijayakumar  1 , Ganapathy K Sreehari  1 , V Raman Kutty  2 , Arun Rachana  3 , Abdul Jaleel  4
Affiliations

Incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and prediabetes in Kerala, India: results from a 10-year prospective cohort

Gadadharan Vijayakumar et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Kerala, the southern state of India, has experienced sudden rise in the prevalence estimates of diabetes. A cohort study on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Kerala state thus aptly bridges the lacuna of incidence estimate of T2DM from a population at risk.

Methods: A 10-year prospective cohort study was carried out in two urban wards of central Kerala. The individuals who participated in the baseline survey in 2007 were again invited for a follow-up study in 2017. The data was analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics for windows (version 21.0). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Findings are based on the 10-year follow-up data from 869 participants from the cohort.

Results: The overall follow-up and response rate of the study was 68.9 and 86.9% respectively. During the follow-up period, 190 people (21.9%) developed T2DM. The incidence rate of T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were 24.5 per 1000 person years and 45.01 per 1000 person years respectively. Nearly 60% of participants with baseline IFG were converted to T2DM group in the follow-up period. Age > 45 years, family history of T2DM, BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and presence of central obesity emerged as important risk factors for incident T2DM.

Conclusion: High incidence of prediabetes over diabetes observed in this study shows an epidemic trend of T2DM in Kerala, India. It requires an immediate public health action.

Keywords: Asian Indians; Cohort; Incidence; Prediabetes; Type 2 diabetes.

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Conflict of interest statement

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Institutional Ethics committee, constituted as per the norms of Indian Council of Medical Research [12], of Medical Trust Hospital and Diabetes Care Centre had approved the study protocol. Study was conducted after obtaining informed written consent from the study participants.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Flow chart on the study participants. The baseline, Study of Life Style Diseases in Central Kerala (SLICK) was conducted in 2007 having 1645 participants. Out of the 1404 participants, who did not have T2DM in 2007, 1000 participants were available for the current study on incidence of T2DM and 869 people were able to participate showing a response rate of 86.9%
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Relationship between baseline BMI and the incidence of T2DM. Study participants were categorized into different BMI groups based on their baseline BMI in 2007 (X-Axis). Y-axis shows the % of people who contracted T2DM in the follow-up period during the current study
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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