Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2019 Feb;48(2):181-198.
doi: 10.1007/s10964-018-0971-x. Epub 2019 Feb 1.

Developmental Trajectories of Conduct Problems and Cumulative Risk from Early Childhood to Adolescence

Leslie Morrison Gutman  1 , Heather Joshi  2 , Ingrid Schoon  2
Affiliations

Developmental Trajectories of Conduct Problems and Cumulative Risk from Early Childhood to Adolescence

Leslie Morrison Gutman et al. J Youth Adolesc. 2019 Feb.

Abstract

Pathways into and out of conduct problems differ by circumstances experienced since infancy. There is a research gap in understanding how these developmental patterns vary according to the timing and persistence of risk and whether there are differences across ecological domains. This study examines variations in trajectories of conduct problems between ages 3 to 14 years and associated child, family and socio-economic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years, drawing on the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206, 49% female), a nationally representative longitudinal study of children born between 2000/02. Group-based modeling was used to identify four distinct trajectories of conduct problems: low (56%), persistent high (8%), childhood-limited (23%) and adolescent-onset (13%). All three problem pathways were associated with high levels of exposure to risk, particularly early socio-economic and persisting child and family risks. However, while for the persistent and adolescent-onset pathways, exposure to higher levels of family and child risks continued through adolescence, it receded for the childhood-limited trajectory. The effects of early socio-economic disadvantage persisted for those on the adolescent-onset trajectory, highlighting the importance of early markers for this later onset group. Maternal smoking in pregnancy continued to be a significant predictor for all three conduct problem groups, even up to age 14 years. The findings indicate that different influences and processes may explain diverse pathways of conduct problems. This offers insights into who and what might be targeted and when might be the most effective developmental window for intervention.

Keywords: Co-morbidity; Conduct problems; Cumulative risk; Developmental trajectories; Group-based modeling.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Compliance with Ethical Standards

The surveys have all received ethical clearance from NHS Research Ethics Committees.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

UCL Institute of Education provided ethical approval for the secondary analysis used in this manuscript.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trajectory groups of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years. Shown are estimated trajectories (lines), observed group means at each age (markers) and estimated group percentages
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Ackerman BP, Schoff K, Levinson K, Youngstrom E, Izard CE. The relations between cluster indexes of risk and promotion and the problem behaviors of 6-and 7-year-old children from economically disadvantaged families. Developmental Psychology. 1999;35(6):1355–1366. - PubMed
    1. American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (DSM). (5th Edn) Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Association.
    1. Andruff H, Carraro N, Thompson A, Gaudreau P, Louvet B. Latent class growth modeling: a tutorial. Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology. 2009;5(1):11–24.
    1. Appleyard K, Egeland B, Dulmen MH, Alan Sroufe L. When more is not better: the role of cumulative risk in child behavior outcomes. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 2005;46(3):235–245. - PubMed
    1. Atzaba‐Poria N, Pike A, Deater‐Deckard K. Do risk factors for problem behavior act in a cumulative manner? An examination of ethnic minority and majority children through an ecological perspective. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. 2004;45(4):707–718. - PubMed