Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2019 Apr 8;219(Suppl_1):S14-S20.
doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz040.

Predicting the Next Influenza Pandemics

Gabriele Neumann  1 , Yoshihiro Kawaoka  1   2
Affiliations

Predicting the Next Influenza Pandemics

Gabriele Neumann et al. J Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Worldwide outbreaks of influenza (pandemics) are caused by influenza A viruses to which persons lack protective immune responses. Currently, we are unable to predict which influenza virus strains may cause a pandemic. In this article, we summarize some of the information that will be needed to better assess the pandemic potential of influenza viruses, and we discuss our current gaps in knowledge.

Keywords: Influenza; pandemic; prediction; surveillance; transmission.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Overview of proposed activities and tools to enable the prediction of future influenza pandemics. See text for details. Abbreviations: IRAT, Influenza Risk Assessment Tool; TIPRA, Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Krafft AE, Bijwaard KE, Fanning TG. Initial genetic characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus. Science 1997; 275:1793–6. - PubMed
    1. Scholtissek C, Rohde W, Von Hoyningen V, Rott R. On the origin of the human influenza virus subtypes H2N2 and H3N2. Virology 1978; 87:13–20. - PubMed
    1. Kawaoka Y, Krauss S, Webster RG. Avian-to-human transmission of the PB1 gene of influenza A viruses in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. J Virol 1989; 63:4603–8. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Dawood FS, Jain S, Finelli L, et al. . Emergence of a novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus in humans. N Engl J Med 2009; 360:2605–15. - PubMed
    1. Smith GJ, Vijaykrishna D, Bahl J, et al. . Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic. Nature 2009; 459:1122–5. - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms