Quantitative Risk Assessment Model of Human Salmonellosis Resulting from Consumption of Broiler Chicken

Abstract

(1) Background: Salmonella infections are a major cause of illnesses in the United States. Each year around 450 people die from the disease and more than 23,000 people are hospitalized. Salmonella outbreaks are commonly associated with eggs, meat and poultry. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment model (QRAM) was developed to determine Salmonella infections in broiler chicken. (2) Methods: Data of positive Salmonella infections were obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System, in addition to published literature. The Decision Tools @RISK add-in software was used for various analyses and to develop the QRAM. The farm-to-fork pathway was modeled as a series of unit operations and associated pathogen events that included initial contamination at the broiler house (node 1), contamination at the slaughter house (node 2), contamination at retail (node 3), cross-contamination during serving and cooking (node 4), and finally the dose⁻response model after consumption. (3) Results: QRAM of Salmonella infections from broiler meat showed highest contribution of infection from the retail node (33.5%). (4) Conclusions: This QRAM that predicts the risk of Salmonella infections could be used as a guiding tool to manage the Salmonella control programs.

Keywords: Salmonella; broiler chicken; farm-to-fork; food safety; risk assessment.

Figure 1

Probability framework of Salmonella infections at different nodes using the farm-to-fork pathway.

Figure 2

Simulation models for the four nodes of the Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM): broiler house, slaughter house, retail and consumers.

Figure 3

Dose–response graph for Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis.

Figure 4

Dose–response graph for Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium.