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. 2018 Mar;4(1):16-21.
doi: 10.1016/j.afos.2018.03.003. Epub 2018 Mar 22.

An updated hip fracture projection in Asia: The Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies study

Ching-Lung Cheung  1   2 , Seng Bin Ang  3   4 , Manoj Chadha  5   6 , Eddie Siu-Lun Chow  2   7 , Yoon-Sok Chung  8   9 , Fen Lee Hew  10   11 , Unnop Jaisamrarn  12   13 , Hou Ng  14   15 , Yasuhiro Takeuchi  16   17 , Chih-Hsing Wu  18   19 , Weibo Xia  20   21 , Julie Yu  22   23 , Saeko Fujiwara  17   24
Affiliations

An updated hip fracture projection in Asia: The Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies study

Ching-Lung Cheung et al. Osteoporos Sarcopenia. 2018 Mar.

Abstract

Objectives: Hip fracture is a major public health problem. Earlier studies projected that the total number of hip fracture will increase dramatically by 2050, and most of the hip fracture will occur in Asia. To date, only a few studies provided the updated projection, and none of them focused on the hip fracture projection in Asia. Thus, it is essential to provide the most up to date prediction of hip fracture in Asia, and to evaluate the total direct medical cost of hip fracture in Asia.

Methods: We provide the updated projection of hip fracture in 9 Asian Federation of Osteoporosis Societies members using the most updated incidence rate and projected population size.

Results: We show that the number of hip fracture will increase from 1,124,060 in 2018 to 2,563,488 in 2050, a 2.28-fold increase. This increase is mainly due to the changes on the population demographics, especially in China and India, which have the largest population size. The direct cost of hip fracture will increase from 9.5 billion United State dollar (USD) in 2018 to 15 billion USD in 2050, resulting a 1.59-fold increase. A 2%-3% decrease in incidence rate of hip fracture annually is required to keep the total number of hip fracture constant over time.

Conclusions: The results show that hip fracture remains a key public health issue in Asia, despite the available of better diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of fracture over the recent years. Healthcare policy in Asia should be aimed to reduce the burden of hip fracture.

Keywords: Asia; Hip fracture; Incidence; Osteoporosis.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Incidence of hip fracture in female (A) and male (B) in 9 studied countries/regions. Mean incidence rate was used for China, Japan, and Taiwan (see Methods section in main text).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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