Data-Driven Goals for Curbing the U.S. HIV Epidemic by 2030

Abstract

Progress in reducing HIV infections has been suboptimal despite availability of effective prevention and treatment interventions and national strategies to bring them to scale. As part of a community-driven process, we expanded previous epidemiologic models using updated surveillance data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate quantitative parameters for ambitious but attainable national HIV prevention goals. We estimated new HIV infections could be reduced by up to 67% and prevalence could begin to decline by 2030 if 95% targets for diagnosis, care retention, and viral suppression are met by 2025 and an additional 20% of transmissions are averted through targeted interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis. Notably, this would require the percentage of diagnosed persons retained in HIV care to increase by more than 35 percentage points, which would necessitate innovative models and a substantial expansion of supportive services. Although the HIV incidence reduction goal of 90% as unveiled in the 2019 State of the Union Address is likely unachievable with the current intervention toolkit, it is possible to begin to substantially reduce HIV prevalence in the next decade with sufficient investments and innovation.

Keywords: HIV care continuum; HIV incidence; HIV prevalence; Surveillance.