The Rise of Noncommunicable Diseases in Kenya: An Examination of the Time Trends and Contribution of the Changes in Diet and Physical Inactivity

Abstract

This study examined correlations of historical changes in diet and physical inactivity with the rise of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Kenya. Historical data on diet, wage jobs by industry, urbanization, gross domestic product (GDP), and morbidity due to NCDs were extracted from Kenya Statistical Abstracts, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT), and the World Bank online database. These data were plotted and correlations between these factors and the incidence of different NCDs over time were evaluated. There was a rapid rise in the incidence of circulatory disease starting in 2001, and of hypertension and diabetes starting in 2008. The rise of these NCDs, especially hypertension and diabetes, was accompanied over the same period by a rise in per capita GDP and physical inactivity (as measured by increased urbanization and declining proportion of agricultural and forestry wage jobs); a rise in per capita supply of rice, wheat and its products, and cooking oils; and a decline in the per capita supply of maize and sugar. In conclusion, the positive correlations between indicators of dietary consumption and physical inactivity and rates of hypertension, circulatory disease, and diabetes suggest that the rapid rise of NCDs in Kenya may be, in part, due to changes in these modifiable factors.

Keywords: Chronic diseases; Kenya; dietary consumption; noncommunicable diseases; physical activity; trend.

Figure 1

The incidence of circulatory disease (1984–2007), hypertension (2009–2013), and diabetes (2009–2013) in Kenya

Figure 2

Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1961–2015

Figure 3

Urbanization and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1961–2015. Pop, population

Figure 4

Proportion of employment in agriculture (agric) and forestry and outpatient incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1961–2013

Figure 5

Supply of sugar and sweeteners and incidence of diabetes in Kenya, 1970–2013

Figure 6

Supply of maize and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1970–2013

Figure 7

Supply of wheat and its products, bread production, and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1970–2013

Figure 8

Supply of rice and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1970–2013

Figure 9

Production of cooking oil and ghee and fat and incidence of circulatory disease, hypertension, and diabetes in Kenya, 1972–2013

Figure 10

Production of salt and incidence of circulatory disease and hypertension in Kenya, 1970–2013